Given that his side’s recent defensive record indicates a level of parsimony not seen since Ebenezer Scrooge went on an economy drive, it seems strange that Steve McClaren should be so apprehensive before tomorrow’s decisive European Championship qualifying tie against Croatia. But there are good reasons for his caution.

The England head coach would be foolish to seek solace in statistics alone. When they pursue the draw that would seal their place at next summer’s finals, England’s players can take heart that they have conceded only four goals in 11 matches throughout a turbulent qualifying campaign. Yet, beneath the surface, the side are far from secure.

Why else would McClaren be giving serious consideration to dropping Paul Robinson, his first-choice goalkeeper, who has kept nine clean sheets in his past 11 competitive matches (and 13 in 16 going back to the start of last year’s World Cup finals)? England’s problems spring from the twin perils of performances and personnel.

Although concession of goals have been rare under McClaren, like London buses they have tended to come in threes. This pattern reached its nadir when Roman Pavlyuchenko scored twice in four minutes to give Russia a 2-1 win in Moscow last month, but it should also be remembered that Croatia’s two goals in last year’s defeat - courtesy of Eduardo and Gary Neville – came in an equally fraught eight-minute spell in Zagreb.

Expert View

McClaren may say that he is still learning. I would say that he is still making mistakes yet he is hardly new to the job

Tony Cascarino

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BACKGROUND

• Robinson suffers crisis of confidence

• Crouch must respond to taller orders

• England’s case for the defence

• Fail or succeed, McClaren must go

BACKGROUND

• Ever-changing world of England line-ups

• Beckham the man Croats fear most

• Cole ‘rewards’ Israeli team-mate

• Pearce aims to show seniors how it is done

Although both those defeats could be attributed to the error-strewn goalkeeping of Robinson, England’s defensive problems will not disappear if he is replaced by Scott Carson. Indeed, they could even worsen, as a hastily assembled back four surely require all the experience that can be mustered behind them and Carson is the proud owner of that single cap collected against Austria last Friday.

If England get the result they need, McClaren will be remembered as a lucky head coach who was reliant on Israel to qualify, but the side’s injury record hardly suggests a man favoured by fortune. In addition to the almost habitual absence of Wayne Rooney and Michael Owen, McClaren has been unable to field his first-choice side for more than a year, with 252 caps’ worth of experience cheering on their teammates from the dressing-room.

The situation is so bad that McClaren was considering another remarkable return for John Terry despite the Chelsea defender not having played since having knee surgery a month ago, but, as he did not train yesterday, that can be discounted.

The back four of Micah Richards, Sol Campbell, Joleon Lescott and Wayne Bridge boasts 110 caps, but 71 of them belong to Campbell and they all begin the match with question marks over their long-term futures.

Richards’s rawness has been increasingly exposed, Lescott endured a torrid time on his first two appearances against Estonia and Russia and Bridge is feeling his way back having missed the start of the season after ankle surgery. It is in the once-strong area of centre back that the problems are most acute, however, as the Campbell-Lescott partnership is the seventh that McClaren has tried in only 17 matches, while Richards teamed up with the Everton defender in the second half against Austria to make it eight.

Neither player was one of the five centre backs named in McClaren’s first squad to face Greece 15 months ago, while Jonathan Woodgate and Ledley King got opportunities ahead of them later in the campaign. Although a testament to England’s resilience, such circumstances show that McClaren is right to be concerned as he seeks the draw that eluded him in Russia. As devotees of A Christmas Carol will recall, even Scrooge gave things away in the end.