Group A Group B Group C Group D

They all say they will miss us, that the tournament will be the poorer for our absence, but do they mean it? Those charged with the policing of Euro 2008 will miss England’s hooligan element like a boil on the backside, and foreign fans keen to see the stars of the Premier League will get to do so anyway — Ronaldo, Torres, Fabregas et al.

The theory that domestic interest in the tournament collapsed on that rainy night England failed to qualify ignores the fact that most English supporters place club before country, and that followers of nearly every team in the Premier League, not just the “Big Four”, will have familiar favourites at the finals. The Riversiders of Middlesbrough will follow the fortunes of Austria’s Emanuel Pogatetz, Manchester City’s Blue Moonies will keep an eye on Croatia’s Vedran Corluka, Pompey Chimers will expect much from their adopted Frenchman, Lassana Diarra, and the Villans of Aston will always have a soft spot for Sweden’s Olof Mellberg.

In short, there will be plenty to hold the attention of the English audience, even if it is only a television one. The fact that Greece came from nowhere to win Euro 2004 should appeal to the romantics, as well as reminding all of us that anybody can upset the odds. The Greeks, individually, were nowhere near as accomplished as Sven-Göran Eriksson’s England last time and their triumph was founded on the rudimentary virtues of spirit, industry and organisation. For those looking for similar characteristics in an outside bet, Sweden could provide a run for their euros at 33-1. More realistically, the favourites in the betting, at 4-1, are Germany, followed by Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the likelihood is that these four will be the semi-finalists.

Any analysis has to begin at the group stage, where the initial 16 are reduced to eight. Group A looks like a cinch for “Big Phil” Scolari’s Portugal, blessed with the best player in the world, Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the best centre-halves, Ricardo Carvalho, and a clever playmaker, Barcelona’s Deco. Beaten finalists as hosts last time, they have enough in their locker to make the last four. The Czech Republic, captained by Petr Cech, finished ahead of Germany in qualifying and ought to progress as group runners-up at the expense of Turkey and the co-hosts, Switzerland, although they will miss Arsenal’s Tomas Rosicky, who is ruled out with injury.

In Group B, Germany should make short work of Croatia, Poland and Austria, who are so poor that they could be an embarrassment as hosts. The Croats would have been dark horses had they not lost their cutting edge, Arsenal’s Eduardo. Under the shrewd direction of Slaven Bilic, they should still get through to the last eight.

Group C is the inevitable “Group of Death”, comprising France, Holland, Italy and Romania. Nothing can be taken for granted here, bearing in mind that Romania won their qualifying group, ahead of the Dutch, whom they beat 1-0 at home and held goalless away. Adrian Mutu, now with Fiorentina, a familiar figure after his troubled spell with Chelsea, scored six goals in qualifying, when he received effective support from Stuttgart’s Ciprian Marica. The captain, Internazionale’s Cristian Chivu, is one to watch. Had they been in any other section, Gheorghe Hagi’s heirs might have gone a long way, and it would come as no real surprise if they were to finish ahead of Holland again, but the balance of probabilities points to Italy and France coming first and second. They were drawn together in the qualifying group, where calcio’s finest emerged on top, and they could well finish in that order again after a seismic clash in Zurich on June 17.

Group D lacks that glamour, but could be just as competitive, with the favourites, Spain, vulnerable against Greece, Russia and Sweden. Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Fernando Torres and company will be tapas if they don’t go through. The Swedes, who beat them 2-0 at home in qualifying, are sufficiently powerful and well organised to put out the holders and Guus Hiddink’s Russia, who overachieved in eliminating England.

Such a scenario would provide the following quarter-finals: Portugal v Croatia, Germany v Czech Republic, Italy v Sweden and Spain v France. Further examination at this stage quickly suggests that Portugal should be too strong for Croatia and that Germany and Italy ought to prevail against the Czechs and Sweden respectively. The hardest quarter-final to call would be Spain, the eternal underachievers, versus France, who were World Cup finalists two years ago. Spain’s record in international tournaments is even worse than England’s (they have won nothing since the 1964 European Championship) and their official song talks only of “getting past the quarter-finals”.

France knocked them out of the World Cup in the second round in 2006, winning 3-1 in Hanover, but Spain have improved, notably so in the case of Fabregas, Torres and Barcelona’s Andres Iniesta, while France have only got older. There are a lot of senior citizens in Raymond Domenech’s team — Lilian Thuram is 36, Claude Makelele 35, Patrick Vieira 32 this month and Thierry Henry nudging 31 — and it is questionable whether they have the legs for one last hurrah. Elsewhere, William Gallas had a poor season for Arsenal, as did Florent Malouda at Chelsea, and it is not difficult to envisage Torres embarrassing their defence and Fabregas running the midfield.

All this supposition leads us to a semi-final line-up of Portugal v Germany and Italy v Spain, at which stage the imponderable that the English call “bottle” comes into play. In terms of natural talent, the Portuguese have the edge, but nobody does temperament like the Germans, and Michael Ballack and Torsten Frings are good enough to give them the edge in midfield, in which case Kevin Kuranyi, of Schalke, and Munich’s Miroslav Klose become potential matchwinners up front. Ronaldo, of course, is gifted enough to make nonsense of any forecast, but I take Teutonic efficiency to shade it. The other semi looks just as close, but how can anybody gainsay the World Cup-holders? Well, here goes. Even more so than France, the Italians have a Dorian Gray look about them.

Like Milan when they were outplayed at home by Arsenal in March, the Azzurri appear to be ageing before our eyes. Fabio Cannavaro and Marco Materazzi are nearly 35, an age Christian Panucci has reached already, and other thirtysomethings include Gianluca Zambrotta, Massimo Ambrosini, Mauro Camoranesi, Gennaro Gattuso, Antonio Di Natale and Luca Toni. If Spain can summon the self-belief and play their opponents rather than the famous blue shirts, Torres and Fabregas can run Italy’s old guard into the ground. Spain would then play Germany for the title in Vienna on June 29, and you never bet against the Germans in a final. It is the exception, however, that proves the rule. The Lovejoy beer money has been lost on the accursed Iberians at every tournament since Euro ’88 (they have let me down nearly as often as Liverpool in the Premier League) but they have to come good eventually, don’t they?

On that unscientific basis and less dubiously on the evidence of Torres’s annus mirabilis, Fabregas’s talent and the excellence of Iker Casillas in goal, I take Spain to end 44 years of hurt, guaranteeing a good time to be had on the Costas, come July.