The margin between success and failure is wafer-thin, but, for Roberto Donadoni, the latest penalty shoot-out heartbreak of a luckless career is likely to spell the end of his tenure as Italy coach. Given the chance last night to offer Donadoni a vote of confidence, the head of the Italian football federation pointedly refused, saying darkly that a decision will be made in the cold light of the unhappy days ahead.

“We shall assess that calmly,” Giancarlo Abete, the president of the Italian football federation, said when asked whether Donadoni was the man to take the team to the 2010 World Cup finals. “We must not take these decisions in the spur of the moment, based on emotions. We will assess the outcome of this tournament for Italy and we will see what happens.”

Donadoni confessed that the decision was out of his hands as he cursed his luck. “I can say that the players have given everything,” he said. “They have been really good and have had a very strong bond. It doesn’t matter what result they achieved.”

He recalled previous defeats he had endured on penalties with Italy in a World Cup semi-final against Argentina in 1990, when he missed one of the decisive kicks, in the 1994 World Cup final against Brazil and even in an Under21 championship. “It is,” he said grimly, “a lottery.”

Lotteries? Do not talk to Iker Casillas about lotteries. As a young boy he was entrusted each week with posting his father’s entry for the Spanish football pools. One week his father predicted all 15 results correctly and thought that he was about to become a millionaire, only to discover that young Iker had forgotten to post the coupon and, to add insult to injury, had spent the entrance fee.

Last night, in the lottery of a penalty shoot-out, the Spain goalkeeper covered himself in rather more glory, saving kicks from Daniele De Rossi and Antonio Di Natale before Cesc Fàbregas, the Arsenal midfield player, converted the decisive kick. It was a wonderful moment for Fàbregas, hitherto a peripheral member of the Spain squad in this tournament, but as he disappeared under a sea of red shirts, it was Casillas who emerged 30 seconds later as the man at the centre of his country’s celebrations.

“It is a lottery,” the Real Madrid goalkeeper said afterwards, with not a trace of wicked humour. “In that sense we were lucky to get over this hurdle. I think the last time I saved a penalty was in the last 16 of the 2002 World Cup [against Ireland] and then in the quarter-final we were knocked out by South Korea.”

In the semi-final here on Thursday, Spain will face a familiar adversary, Russia, whom they beat 4-1 in the group stages. But, in view of the subsequent improvement of Guus Hiddink’s team, Casillas does not expect a repeat of that scoreline again.

“We would be naive to think that, after beating them, we will get to the final easily,” he said. “We know that they are a great team. They showed that against Sweden and Holland. The previous result is of no value now. It will be a new match.”