If you forced me to fill in a slip at the bookies I’d write down Germany as winners of Euro 2008 but I wouldn’t spend my own money on the bet. Tonight’s final is too close for wagers. The Germans are Europe’s best tournament team but Spain have been the most consistent side at these finals. On the one hand there is Michael Ballack, who continues to grow as a player aged almost 32. On the other there is the boy wonder, Cesc Fabregas. Both play in midfield in the Premier League but have lit up the finals as No 10s.

Fabregas has started just one game, against Greece in the group stage, when Spain were already through. He is likely to start this evening, because of David Villa, the Valencia forward, being ruled out with a thigh injury, and because of that Spain have a much better chance. Villa has been the best striker in the tournament and it seems strange to say losing him will be a blessing in disguise for their manager Luis Aragones. In the qualifiers for this tournament Spain struggled when they used 4-4-2, losing to Northern Ireland and Sweden, and turned the corner when they went to 4-1-4-1.

The players told Aragones: “Coach, we play better with one up front,” so what does Aragones do? He went back to 4-4-2 for the finals. He’s stubborn. As I mentioned before the tournament, Villa and Fernando Torres are two fantastic strikers who have problems playing together. Spain had their best half of the championships in their semi-final versus Russia when Villa went off.

It might have suited Spain even more if Torres had been the one injured because – and people in England might not agree with this – Villa is even better than the Liverpool man, a little more brilliant with the ball at his feet and superior in terms of his scoring record. Yet with Villa’s absence Spain still might have more of a chance. Fabregas can come in and operate as support to Torres, as he did when creating two goals against Russia. Despite his limited chances, young Fabregas has been Spain’s most productive player and only Hamit Altintop, who played almost every minute for Turkey, has provided as many assists in the tournament. Believe me, the 21-year-old from Arsenal is a mean player. He looks like he is all smiles but there’s another side to him that you encounter when you get up close as his opponent. Fabregas is a winner.

AC Milan midfielder Clarence Seedorf quit two weeks before the finals because Holland coach Marco van Basten saw him as a substitute. In a similar way, Fabregas could have become angry with Aragones for failing to appreciate his talent, but instead kept a low profile.

Andres Iniesta is a Fabregas duplicate while Xavi, despite all of his passing skills, is not quite in Fabregas’s league, yet Fabregas said not one public word of dissent about not being selected. I’ve never seen a player with more reason to feel disappointed about being left out – nor one who has responded better. Against Russia, Fabregas demonstrated just what he gives to Spain. His passing – short, long, high, low, to feet, beyond the defence – is unbelievable, and don’t forget his runs. Timing these is something he has learnt from Arsène Wenger; getting players running between the lines is central to Arsenal’s philosophy.

Anchored by the best holding player in the finals, Marcos “The Hoover” Senna, Spain can match up to Germany using Fabregas as part of a midfield five. After defeat against Croatia, the Germans changed their system to 4-2-3-1. If Spain play 4-4-2 against this, they will be punished. It would give Germany an extra midfielder in the centre and since David Silva is a winger, Iniesta is the wide player who would have to come inside and cover, but that would mean leaving space on the flank for Philipp Lahm. It has been the tournament of the attacking full-back and the two-footed, dynamic Lahm has easily been its best.

Lahm’s last-minute winner against Turkey sums up the Germans. They were outplayed and hit by another of Turkey’s late goals. Turkey were the best “last 15 minutes” team of the tournament; what they forgot is that Germany are the best “last 15 minutes” team in the history of football. No team is tougher mentally. Losing to Croatia in the group stages may have focused the minds of Joachim Loew’s men. Holland and Portugal showed that you can play marvellous football in the group games but it counts for nothing at all if you can’t sustain it in the knockout stages. Meanwhile, Germany have done their old trick of raising their level when it counts.

After the group matches, Loew dropped the disappointing Mario Gomez to go with Miroslav Klose as a lone striker, with Ballack pushed further forward. It suits the Chelsea player. There, in the No 10 position, he can exploit his talent more. Torsten Frings and Thomas Hitzlsperger do the defensive work and he can concentrate on attack. Ballack has developed into Germany’s leader. When he was young he was known in the Bundesliga for being an introvert. He always called his coaches “mister” and West Germans felt he had a shyness that came from growing up in the former East Germany. At Kaiserslautern, Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich he was encouraged to take centre stage but I feel that he truly changed only in his last six months at Chelsea where, after being out of the team, he finally seemed to say to himself: “If I am a star I have to show it.”

I believe that we will see even more from Ballack in England next season. Only he, Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Lukas Podolski have been on top form for Germany at this tournament. Podolski has made an impressive conversion from striker to left-winger. He is not complicated in the role – he wants to use his pace to get down the line and then cross the ball – but has been responsible for two assists converted by Schweinsteiger coming in from the opposite flank, a combination Spain must guard against. Podolski remains a top finisher, as his three goals show, and he wants to leave Bayern Munich, where he is behind Klose and Luca Toni in the pecking order. He is 23 and plenty of clubs will want him.

The Germans are the tallest team in the tournament and Spain the smallest, but that may not matter. At the 2006 World Cup, 40% of goals came from set-pieces. In contrast, at Euro 2008 there have been very few, with only two scored from direct free kicks. The reason has to do with the design of the ball, which the players are finding difficult to keep down when they strike it. Germany, as was seen against Turkey, have a weakness against small, quick footballers who knock the ball around well, and no side passes and moves better than the Spanish. Only David Silva is a dribbler, the rest play one-touch football, and if Spain are allowed to impose their technical proficiency in any game they can make opponents dizzy. Russia got so tired chasing back and trying to make interceptions they were out of gas in the second half of Thursday’s semi-final.

So why do I still edge towards Germany? It’s their tradition. I was in Germany last week and the feeling among people was of something more than enthusiasm, it was of expectation. Only the Americans have a similar outlook. The only result that counts is winning. Spain have waited 44 years since winning a major finals but Germany have not touched silverware for 12 years. By their standards that’s a famine and they are very, very hungry.

John Motson has the final word

With the BBC losing the FA Cup to ITV from next season, tonight’s Euro 2008 conclusion will probably be John Motson’s last major final as a commentator. ‘Eighteen tournaments is about right for me,’ he said yesterday. ‘I don’t want to go on too long, maybe end up going to South Africa [for the 2010 World Cup finals] and have people say I’m past my best’

Still, we haven’t heard the last of dear old ‘Motty’ just yet. The 62-year-old son of a Methodist minister will continue to commentate on domestic matches for the BBC.

Motson shot into the national consciousness when reporting Hereford’s stunning 2-1 FA Cup replay win against Newcastle United in 1972. His statistical knowledge and trademark sheepskin coat were to become the stuff of legend

Motty’s favourite game was Italy’s 3-2 win against Brazil at the 1982 World Cup finals in Spain when Paolo Rossi, fresh from a two-year ban for his involvement in a betting scandal, hit a hat-trick to put out the favourites

His favourite FA Cup final was the titanic 2006 clash in which Liverpool beat West Ham 3-1 on penalties after the game ended 3-3

Motty, OBE, a Barnet supporter, was also famous for his faux pas, among them, ‘Koller shares a hairstyle with Jaap Stam. Of course, they have no hair’ and ‘The World Cup is a truly international event’. Just last month in the FA Cup final he said: ‘Portsmouth think they’ve scored’. His co-commentator, Mark Lawrenson, had to interject: ‘Er, well, that was probably because they had, John’

Euros expand

The European Championships are likely to be increased from 16 to 24 countries for the 2016 tournament. Uefa’s member countries yesterday agreed to put the proposal to the organisation’s executive committee in September, when it is expected to be rubber stamped. Gordon Smith, the Scottish FA chief executive, said: “Nobody spoke against it”