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Fabio Capello took the biggest gamble of his brief international management career last night when he opted not to recall Michael Owen to the England squad for the matches against Andorra and Croatia.

The move may come to define Capello’s World Cup qualifying campaign, with his players facing the most difficult match of the group stage, in Zagreb, on September 10. Capello watched Owen play for Newcastle United away to Arsenal on Saturday and it was widely considered a formality that he would be restored to the 23-man squad, given England’s dearth of world-class goalscorers.

Instead, Capello has decided to ignore the fear factor that Owen can instil within international defenders and selected four players who cannot match his total of 40 international goals when combined: Jermain Defoe, Wayne Rooney, Emile Heskey and Theo Walcott. Capello’s chosen quartet have 24 goals between them at an average of a goal every 5.04 games; Owen’s ratio in 89 internationals is one goal every 2.22 appearances.

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Despite scoring two goals in three games for Newcastle this season, however, Capello was unconvinced that Owen was operating at full fitness after watching him for 90 minutes at the Emirates Stadium, and feels that another spell of injury and illness during the summer has taken its toll. Whether Owen has a long-term future with England depends on the early success of this campaign, but it is increasingly clear that the new manager is not inclined to pick players on history alone. Previous incumbents came to regard Owen as a talisman, but Capello has been sceptical about his worth to the team from the start and used him only once, as a substitute for 43 minutes against France.

With England struggling to find the net in a friendly international with the Czech Republic last month, Owen’s return was widely expected and Capello knows that the easy option would be to have included the striker and avoided controversy, but he sees no point in selecting a player with continued doubts about his fitness. He does not view this as the end for Owen, although the player will no doubt feel that he is no longer rated by the England management.

The judgment may come back to haunt Capello, if England struggle to mount an attacking threat against Croatia, as happened under Steve McClaren, his predecessor, who used Peter Crouch and a half-fit Wayne Rooney in Zagreb, to little effect.

Capello believes that the inform player in Owen’s position is Defoe, the Portsmouth striker, who was outstanding in Saturday’s 3-0 win away to Everton. Rooney is a certain starter despite a slow opening to the season, while Capello wants Walcott’s pace coming off the bench as an option and Heskey’s ability to hold the ball up if England are chasing a game and need to apply late pressure.

Yet, just as McClaren’s decision to ditch David Beckham was blamed for England’s failure to qualify for the European Championship, so there are certain to be accusations that Owen should have been picked if chances are missed at vital moments or Capello fails to get the desired performance against Andorra, or a result against Croatia.

As expected, there is no place for Michael Carrick, missing from a midfield already shorn of Owen Hargreaves and Steven Gerrard, giving an opportunity to Jimmy Bullard, of Fulham, called into an England squad for the first time at the age of 29.