Graphic: Showdown in Zagreb

Times change. When Bobby Robson became England manager, his first game was against Denmark away. In those days, it was not uncommon for the starting XI to be named the day before the game. Robson had gone through his players, man by man, when he was asked if he had a message for the opposition. He picked up the piece of paper on which the names were written, looked at it and threw it down on the table in front of him. “This is my team,” he said, “and we’re coming to get you.” Feel free to stand up and sing Land of Hope and Glory at this point, if you wish.

These days, things are a little different. The manager of England now hails from Friuli-Venezia Giulia, not County Durham, and not even the players know the team until two hours before the game. If anybody found out earlier, he would probably have them strangled. As for a message to the opposition, I’m not telling you my team and if we can nick a draw we’ll be absolutely delighted, would appear to be the size of it. Fabio Capello says that he goes into every game to win, but nobody is buying that, either. There has been a reevaluation of England’s standing in world football in recent years, and this is the first significant match after the brutal reality check that came with the failed qualification campaign for Euro 2008.

After defeat in Croatia almost two years ago, Steve McClaren was asked at the postmatch press conference: “Shouldn’t we be beating teams like this?” For a team as troubled as England the answer should have been: in your dreams, pal. Croatia have not lost a competitive game at home since becoming a Fifa-recognised nation again in 1992. Italy could not win here, so why should England?

Expert View

The Croatia result will decide whether the concept of Capello as manager flies or not

Martin Samuel

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BACKGROUND

• Zagreb holds no fear for Capello and England

• England must call time on years of hurt

• Bilic's recipe: wine, fags and talent

• Capello has no time for video nasties

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There used to be arrogance in English football’s attitude to Europe, but that has been eroded as formerly inferior nations have caught up. England once beat Turkey 8-0, but now watch as Turkey defeat Croatia on the way to the semi-final of a tournament for which England did not qualify. The swagger has been replaced by a snivel. John Terry, the captain, talked of being surprised by Croatia’s technical capability last time out and Capello as good as admitted that, while English football sat smugly still, the rest of the world caught up.

“The level of football in the world has moved on,” the manager said. “Certain countries, Italy, Spain, Germany, England, were always at a high level, but then with new preparation and styles, other countries began to get there. If you are already at 90 per cent, getting to 92 per cent is not easy, but to make a big step from 70 per cent, that is possible. No game is easy now. You can see the last qualification results, what happened to France in Austria, or that Italy almost lost in Cyprus. As a manager, you can study, you can prepare, but it is not easy.” Quite when England were hitting that 90 per cent mark in recent years, is a mystery. Even in the days of passionate speeches from managers such as Robson, the eventuality was often different. The game in which Robson announced his team were coming to get Denmark ended 2-2. Denmark came to get England at Wembley instead, winning 1-0. The finals of the 1984 European Championship took place with Denmark, but not England.

Terry said that it was in the past three years that English football lost its capacity to intimidate, but the warning signs were there, even in the good times. Visits to Slovakia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia under Sven-Göran Eriksson were successful, but traumatic, and the days when England could be relied upon to get a draw away in a hostile environment are a distant memory.

It was in 2003 that a point was secured against Turkey in Istanbul, and 1997 when England went to Rome and drew 0-0 under Glenn Hoddle, condemning Italy to a World Cup qualifying play-off. Last season, the same result in Russia would have seen England through to the European Championship finals; even leading 1-0 at half-time, they could not claim a point.

“A draw in Zagreb would be a great result,” Terry admitted. “The same in Ukraine next year. We know we should beat the other teams in our group, but you only have to look at Andorra to see the way the sport has changed. A few years ago we would have been expecting 6-0, now managers and players are wiser and play to their strengths.” That is what Capello will do this evening, for sure. There will be no repeat of McClaren’s five at the back system, an idea that exposed the limitations in his players’ minds, as much as the limits of their belief in him. Capello has new ideas, but little that would be regarded as radical, and there will definitely be a back four in place. Beyond that is more of a conundrum, most speculation surrounding his three options in midfield: Theo Walcott, David Beckham or Jermaine Jenas, the outsider.

Walcott looked good in patches against Andorra on Saturday, but with Wayne Rooney included and Joe Cole looking to have done enough to merit a place, it would seem a cavalier move to include all three in the starting lineup, as well as Emile Heskey.

Last night’s training session was spent with Walcott and Cole behind Rooney, and Beckham next to Gareth Barry and Frank Lampard in a Christmas tree formation, which makes more sense. The third option, belt and braces, is to dispense with Beckham and Walcott entirely, introduce Jenas to thicken the midfield three, and play Cole and Rooney behind Heskey. That way two midfield players would guard the back four and eat up the space in which Luka Modric operates, while Lampard would be released to link with the front three. The most likely plan is that Beckham plays a modified, more aggressive, form of the Jenas role, with the bonus of better passing. Whatever Capello decides, Modric will be the danger.

“We have to check him, between the midfielder and the two centre backs,” Capello said. “We also must pay big attention to the counter-attacks from Croatia. We must play with courage but without fear.”

This is my team and we’re coming to get you? Hardly. But from where England sit now, such proclamations would no longer trigger fear in the opposition. Chuckles, maybe.

The campaign trail

Playing at home appears to have given England little advantage in recent years. Over their past six qualifying campaigns for the World Cup and European Championship, their eight defeats have been divided evenly at home and away. Their remaining 24 home games in that period have brought 19 wins and five draws, and their 24 away matches have produced 17 wins and seven draws.

England’s record in past six qualifying campaigns

Home W19 D5 L4

Away W17 D7 L4