Sporting convention has it that form is temporary and class is permanent. It is a nice thought, one that has been embraced by every top-class sportsman who has endured a wobble, but, when it comes to discussing his England squad for the World Cup finals next summer, Fabio Capello swears by what he calls “the moment”.

It is not enough, he says, to be in the form of your life in autumn, eight months before the carnival in South Africa gets under way. It is about hitting form at the right time and showing that you have enough in your tank to get through what he hopes will be a long tournament. It is an idea that will give Michael Owen a spring in his step and leave Jermain Defoe, among others, wondering whether a flying start to the season may ultimately count for nothing.

These were the messages that Capello delivered on Wednesday evening to his players — those he had selected in the squad to face Ukraine and Belarus and those, like Owen, who had accepted his invitation to come to Wembley as guests of the FA, wondering if this was as close as they would come to a recall to the squad. The “See you in South Africa” toast, as Capello raised a glass to the throng in the dressing room after the 3-0 win over Belarus, may have sounded disingenuous at first, but a carrot has been dangled in front of Owen and others: stay fit, play well and you will get your chance.

It may, of course, be wishful thinking or mere kidology on Capello’s part. For all his claims about picking only those players who are playing well for their clubs, the Italian has, over the past two matches, found places in his starting line-up for Ben Foster, Rio Ferdinand, Wayne Bridge, Michael Carrick and Emile Heskey, none of whom could claim to have hit the ground running at club level this season, but he is adamant that players struggling for form and fitness will not be on the flight to South Africa.

“I will decide after the last game that we play and I will choose only the players who are fit,” Capello said. “I have my ideas, but I have to check next April what the situation is. Sometimes at the start of the season the players are good, but at the end of the season they are tired. When you play against the really important countries, you need to be fit. I hope the players that I have in my mind are fit and also psychologically well. They have to be in a really good situation.”

Under previous regimes, England have gone to World Cups with their hopes pinned on players who are fatigued, after a long season, or, worse still, injured. In 1982, there was Kevin Keegan and Trevor Brooking, the pair of them laid low for most of the tournament. In 1986 and 1990, the luckless Bryan Robson was in no condition to defy medical advice. More recently it has been the curse of the metatarsal, with neither David Beckham in 2002 nor Wayne Rooney in 2006 able to dispel the perception that they would have been better off staying at home.

It will be fascinating to see if Capello sticks to his word if faced with a dilemma over a key player. Even if history tells us that Sven-Göran Eriksson’s decision to take Rooney to Germany in 2006 was the wrong one, it seemed like the right one at the time. The mistake was to pluck a terribly raw Theo Walcott from obscurity in what remains the most baffling squad an England manager has taken to a leading tournament.

There will be no rash selections this time. As much as he talks up his confidence in Aaron Lennon, Walcott, James Milner and Gabriel Agbonlahor, Capello is not one to invest his faith in raw young talent. When he was asked whether Kieran Gibbs, the 20-year-old Arsenal full back, was a contender to be Ashley Cole’s understudy, his facial expression was not encouraging.

Goalkeepers Capello claimed in August, before the friendly against Holland, that he already knew who would be his goalkeeper in the World Cup. He said last Friday that his opinion had not changed, which appeared to make it a vote of confidence in David James, even if the 39-year-old, who was unsettled by the upheaval at Portsmouth over the summer, has not started any of England’s past seven matches.

Robert Green, in starting six of those matches, appears to have established himself as James’s understudy and the third goalkeeping spot will be between Foster, Paul Robinson, Scott Carson, Chris Kirkland and Joe Hart. Foster’s stock has fallen during his run of first-team matches at Manchester United, but he responded well when called upon against Belarus. If he is still in United’s first team, Foster will get the call — but that remains a big if.

Defenders For all Capello’s talk of “the moment”, Ferdinand, erratic of late, remains his vice-captain and the only choice to partner John Terry at the centre of the defence. Matthew Upson has earned the manager’s trust and is likely to go to South Africa as cover. Joleon Lescott remains the marginal favourite for the fourth central-defensive place, but one of Jonathan Woodgate, Phil Jagielka or even Ledley King could displace him if they recover their fitness. Wes Brown offers cover at centre half as well as right back.

Glen Johnson’s defending may be suspect, but, after 11 consecutive starts for England at right back, his place in the squad is safe. Likewise Ashley Cole on the opposite flank, but, for Bridge, for so long his understudy, being replaced at left back by the versatile Milner in the closing stages against Belarus will have been a troubling experience. Lescott, too, can offer cover at left back, so Bridge’s place is suddenly under threat, which may free up an extra place elsewhere.

Midfield players This is where it starts to get difficult, although Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard, fitness permitting, are certain to be in the squad. If Owen Hargreaves can make a successful return from injury, he will be selected, but that is far from guaranteed. Although Capello has a fondness for Carrick, the United midfield player has much to do if he is not to be the man who makes way for Hargreaves.

To judge from everything that Capello has said, Beckham, unless his form and fitness dictate otherwise, will go to South Africa, even if only because he is “important for the group”. That will leave Lennon, Walcott, Milner, Shaun Wright- Phillips, Joe Cole and Stewart Downing to contest a maximum of four places. Joe Cole, if fit, should get back in, alongside Lennon and Walcott, while Milner’s versatility may well secure his place.

Forwards Depending on selections elsewhere, there may be as few as four spaces by the time Capello reaches the forward line. Rooney is guaranteed one of them, but the other three are up for grabs. Heskey will surely claim one, with England’s attacking strategy built around him, and Defoe, a goalscoring substitute, another. If Peter Crouch’s two goals against Belarus have not gone a long way towards banishing Capello’s misgivings about him, nothing will. All of this means that, unless Capello can free up a space elsewhere, Carlton Cole, Agbonlahor and, most notably, Owen will be facing a summer on the beach — unless, of course, they are in an irresistible moment when decision time comes for Capello.

Will this be finals squad?

David James, Robert Green, Ben Foster (or Paul Robinson); Glen Johnson, Wes Brown, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry, Matthew Upson, Joleon Lescott (or Jonathan Woodgate), Ashley Cole, James Milner (or Wayne Bridge); Owen Hargreaves (or Michael Carrick), Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, David Beckham, Theo Walcott, Aaron Lennon, Joe Cole; Wayne Rooney, Emile Heskey, Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch