Graphic: the decline of the invincibles

Perceived crises have afflicted most of the clubs in the Barclays Premier League this season. Even the “big four” heavyweights have not been immune to criticism, with Liverpool, the leaders, deemed to be in unconvincing form at the moment and Chelsea, one point behind in second place, apparently drifting in a state of off-the-pitch disharmony.

Arsenal, the fifth-placed team, have never been far from the microscope and should they lose against third-placed Aston Villa at a sold-out Villa Park today, the wolves will be howling and salivating at the door of Arsène Wenger, their manager. That the season will have five months left to run will be ignored in a wave of pessimism in North London.

Defeat would leave Arsenal six points behind Villa, who are threatening to break the perennial four-way stranglehold at the top. The gloomy prospect of failing to qualify for the Champions League, after ten years of mixing it with the European elite, would be too much to take.

Still, Wenger remains upbeat. “Look, you have AC Milan in the Uefa Cup this season, not in the Champions League,” he said. “Last season, Bayern Munich played in the Uefa Cup. They are not less prestigious clubs than any of the teams who play in the top four.

“In sport, you have to accept that nothing is guaranteed. Only because we achieve it [qualification] every year do people think it is guaranteed. It is not guaranteed, it is down to your performances. Yes, if you look in Europe, not many teams have been in it every year in the past ten years. We will keep in it. Don't worry.”

The Arsenal fans do worry. The Emirates Stadium has resembled the set of a soap opera this season, the latest doom-laden episode featuring the loss of Cesc Fàbregas, the captain and influential midfield player, with a knee injury for up to four months. It is, perhaps, one setback too far for Wenger.

Again, though, he clings to the positives. “Yes, I do,” he said. “Of course we will miss a quality player like Cesc but we are still strong enough to compensate. The eyes of Cesc will be missed but we have to work harder, defend better and find a way to be efficient in a different way.”

Fàbregas has returned to his native Spain to start his rehabilitation and has adopted a philosophical outlook. “It is the first serious injury that I've had in my career,” he said. “Everybody gets injured and now it's my turn. I have to wait, undertake my recovery and return as soon as possible.”

Although Fàbregas will retain the captaincy during his enforced absence, Manuel Almunia, the goalkeeper, is likely to take the armband on a game-by-game basis. William Gallas, who was stripped of the role after criticising team-mates, will not be reappointed. “It is important that Cesc remains the captain of the team even if he doesn't play,” Wenger said. “Gallas? No, I don't consider giving it back to him. That would be unfair.”

Leadership, with Arsenal's form erratic and uninspiring, will be of paramount importance at Villa Park this evening. Yet while Wenger recognises the emergence of Villa as a potent threat, he is not convinced that they are ready to mount a serious challenge for the league title.

“Mathematically, they are in there, but I don't think they can win it,” he said. “There are other teams who, to me, look better equipped, but they could finish in the top four. Other teams have bigger squads with more potential creativity and, in the longer term, that has an input.

“Villa are a team who play mainly on the break. If you look at their passing compared to the other teams in the top four, they go more for defending well, then go quick on the break. We have to try to dominate and stop them from getting at us on those breaks.”