Bill Edgar
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The Premier League is waving its product in the air proudly in the expectation that the world will come calling, but in many ways it can be argued that it is trying to sell sub-standard goods. The English league has been proclaimed the richest in the world this week, but in terms of value for money over the past six years it is possible to contend that fans have never had it so bad.
Taking the period since the 2001-02 season, ticket prices for top-flight matches have risen steeply, as have the levels of predictability. Furthermore, certain factors that theoretically govern entertainment levels in matches – such as the number of goals and shots and the amount of long-ball football – have changed in unwanted directions.
We have calculated the average entrance price per top-flight team in 2001-02 to have been £20, taking into account season tickets and corporate hospitality as well as normal tickets. This has risen each year until it had reached £31 last season. Even allowing for the fact that the Retail Prices Index indicates that £20 six years ago was worth £24 last season, it is a significant increase in the cost of attending matches.
The main argument in favour of the fall in excitement levels in the Premier League is the decline of its competitiveness. By 2002, the days of five or six teams challenging for the title with a dozen matches remaining had long since disappeared, but the situation has only worsened.
To measure competitiveness, we have looked at the closeness of the title race (the difference in points between first and second), the gap between the champions and fifth place (usually the best of the clubs outside the so-called “Big Four”) and the distance from first to last. The gaps have been growing.
The financial superiority of Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal over the rest is often bemoaned and the gap between the title-winners and first team outside the regular Champions League quartet was 29 points last season, whereas there were only 21 points between first and fifth five years earlier. At the present rate this season, it is likely to be in the high twenties again, albeit with Liverpool being challenged for fourth place by several teams.
The gulf between top and bottom has grown from 59 points in 2001-02 through the increasing presence of newly promoted clubs hopelessly out of their depth, such as Derby County this season. While the gap had dropped back to 61 points last season, the trend is for it to become larger, as the 54-point cavity between Arsenal and Derby suggests (it will be 79 points at the end of the campaign at the present rate).
Matters are compounded by the fact that there have been fewer goals, fewer attempts at goal and a greater reliance on long-ball football, with one bright spot being the reduction in fouls. The Barclays Premier League can rightly point to a cluster of world-class players in its ranks and standards are perhaps rising, but it may not be thrilling the world as much as it thinks.
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