Graphic: falling giants: 'big four' on the slide

With the leading four sides exerting the tightest grip on the top division since league football began 120 years ago, any crumb of comfort for the rest will be gobbled up. So the propensity in recent weeks of Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal to throw some morsels down below to the mass of teams starved of success has been welcomed by those clubs and neutrals alike.

Over the past four Barclays Premier League games Chelsea have dropped seven points, Liverpool six, Arsenal five and United four. The failure of any of them to win during a round of league matches last month brought surprise. When it happened again at the weekend, the likes of Aston Villa, who have risen impudently into fourth place in the table, were given hope that they might not be fighting a losing battle after all.

The “big four” have filled the first four places in the league for the past three seasons (in different orders); no four teams had even managed this feat twice in a row until the turn of the millennium, when United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Leeds United did so in 1999-2000 and 2000-01. There was a supposed “big five” of United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Tottenham Hotspur in the years leading to the formation of the Premier League in 1992, but, in the final seven seasons of the old first division, this quintet could not even finish together in the top nine in any one campaign.

Over the past month Chelsea and Liverpool have struggled in particular, having made fine starts to their league campaigns. In each case they have won their sole away game but failed to win any of their three home matches, with West Ham United securing draws at Anfield and Stamford Bridge.

Manchester United and Arsenal have not fared quite so badly but they have been unable to improve on a points-per-game record that leaves them on course to finish well down on last season’s tally. At the present rate, United will gain 76 points, 11 fewer than last season, while’s Arsenal projected total of 67 would be a drop of 16 points.

Liverpool, the leaders, are on course to win 85 points, which would represent a fourth consecutive fall in the tally recorded by the champions. Chelsea picked up 95 points in José Mourinho’s first season as manager and retained their title despite managing four fewer the next year. United triumphed with two points fewer in 2007 and then pipped Chelsea on the final day last season with 87 points.

To add to the optimism of those seeking a more competitive league, Villa are on course to collect 69 points, when the highest tally by a team outside the “big four” in the past five years has been 65.

Despite the worries surrounding all of the “big four”, though, only Arsenal seem to have considerable cause for concern. Liverpool are on course to fare much better than last season and the fact that they top the table is all the more impressive given that they have not won the title since 1990. Based on their projected final tally, Chelsea are only slightly worse off than last season, and United’s inferior results can be excused because they have already faced, perhaps, their toughest nine away fixtures. Arsenal, though, are well below par after selling Mathieu Flamini and Alexander Hleb, two of last season’s first-choice midfield players, in the summer.

United have dropped points aplenty in those tricky away games while excelling at Old Trafford, yet their three main rivals have shown a relish for matches on the road. Chelsea have won 11 points more away than at Stamford Bridge, while Liverpool and

Arsenal have managed similar tallies at home and away. If this suggests that stronger teams are thriving when given more space to attack, it must be remembered that away sides as a whole are gaining far more reward than normal in the Premier League this season.

Wherever their points are won, though, the chasing pack are still some way from toppling the “big four”. Arsenal are only a point away from restoring the natural order by displacing Villa in fourth, so we should enjoy any unpredictable results while we can.