In a Dickensian scene suitable for this time of year, the haves gorge
themselves on whatever they can grab from the table while the have-nots
shiver outside, noses pressed against the glass. The pane belongs to the
transfer window. As the next one is about to be opened, with the focus of
fans and media as normal on those clubs who are splurging, there is often a
hidden story, one involving their less illustrious rivals who, frustrated
and penniless, are forced into a fire sale rather than a buying spree.
Transfer windows are a time of contrasts and the mid-season window of the
2008-09 season, running from January 1 to February 2, promises to be one of
the most unequal. The Premier League has the world’s richest club, the Abu
Dhabi-owned Manchester City, poised to lavish petro-dollars on some of the
50-plus signing targets with whom they have been linked. On the other hand
there are the likes of Portsmouth and West Ham, in debt and with owners who
can no longer fund them. These clubs are dependent not on what talent they
recruit but on what they sell.
Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Manchester United are
among other likely spenders. Middlesbrough and perhaps even Chelsea could be
among the net sellers. At Blackburn Rovers there will be a break-even
philosophy, with several players coming in and at least one star (Roque
Santa Cruz) going out. Santa Cruz is one of several goalscorers who are top
of many clubs' wanted lists (click
here to see graphic).
The selling side of the transfer window is seldom considered. Mid-season can
be a time when worried chairmen and chief executives instruct managers to
balance their books. In 2007-08 only 11 Premier League clubs spent more in
January than they took in from sales. The sobering truth was that, come the
end of the season, the January spenders had seen results improve only
marginally more than the sellers (click
here to see graphic). Tottenham had the third-biggest net outlay, £13m,
but their league position when the campaign finished on May 11 was the same
as it had been on January 31.
Middlesbrough’s league placing was also unaltered although, having parted with
a net £8.5m of talent, they topped the sellers table. None of this will stop
managers urging their superiors to open the chequebook.
Birmingham City may have spent a net £5m last January only to slip down the
league and be relegated, but Fulham saved themselves from Championship
football by securing Brede Hangeland and several other effective recruits.
Fulham’s example is the one that Blackburn, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke and,
yes, Manchester City will hope to follow. Steve Bruce, the Wigan manager,
likens the January rush to “buying puppies at Christmas” and recent history
is littered with examples of Premier League clubs being sold dodgy mongrels
rather than pedigree chums. Before authorising signings, to use another
image from Dickens, the Premier League’s moneymen need to blot from their
minds the ghosts of January windows past. The spectres of Jean-Alain
Boumsong and Rade Prica could frighten the living daylights out of any
chairman, ensuring a club chequebook is kept shut.
Boumsong, bought by Newcastle for £8m in January 2005, and Prica, picked up by
Sunderland for £2m last winter, were signed to address immediate weaknesses.
Neither had the desired result. The best January signings have been those
that developed into long-term success stories. Nemanja Vidic and Patrice
Evra are among the cleverest bits of transfer business Sir Alex Ferguson has
done and both were mid-season recruits.
The business Manchester City do will be fascinating, not only because of the
club’s sky-high ambitions and potential to spend almost any amount on a
player. Mark Hughes cannot be certain of still being manager come February
2, given that City find themselves suddenly occupied by the danger of
relegation in a season that started with the club’s executive chairman,
Garry Cook, saying: “Can we be as big, or bigger, than Manchester United?
Yes. Can we win the Premier League? Yes. It will take time, probably 10
years or more. But if I didn’t think that, I wouldn’t be here.”
A bookmaker last week quoted odds of 7-4 for Hughes to be replaced during the
window; should he survive and be allowed to direct buying policy, he will
have to balance his owners’ desire to bring more megastars like Robinho to
Eastlands with the need to make mundane signings who could inject resolve
into a flaky team. Hughes already wants to sell one of City’s box-office
Brazilians, Elano, and is said to have doubts about another, the £18m Jo.
The dichotomy explains a list of names City have been linked with, which
includes Michael Turner of Hull City and Matthew Upson of West Ham as well
as Kaka, David Villa and Franck Ribery.
As a compromise, Hughes may go for players who bring excitement but also a
good work ethic. He is thought to have already had a £6m offer for Craig
Bellamy rejected by West Ham and is poised to activate a £17m release clause
in Santa Cruz’s Blackburn contract. Cook said: “We want to bring some
balance to the squad. We are talking about balance rather than a fantasy
football team.”
Hughes has also spoken soberly. “There will be a Manchester City ‘premium’ on
prices but the premium will not be significant. We have a valuation of
players and won’t go an enormous amount over that. We won’t be taken
advantage of.”
Manchester United’s activity will be more serene. Ferguson is looking to
repeat his trick of using January to buy for the future by completing the
signing of Zoran Tosic, a 21-year-old wide attacker from Partizan Belgrade
nicknamed Bambi because of his slender build. There is nothing slight about
the talent of Tosic, who specialises in spectacular goals from free kicks
and long-range shots. Acquiring him now will allow United to see if he can
be adapted to the physical demands of English football with a view to
unleashing him properly next season. The fee for Tosic is said to be £8m and
United have already secured him a work permit and given him a tour of their
Carrington training ground.
They are pursuing another Serbian, 17-year-old midfield sensation Adem Ljajic,
who is also at Partizan, and the suggestion is that a £7m deal will tie up
his services while letting him remain in his home league until the summer.
Arsenal are the other member of the so-called Big Four looking to spend.
Arsène Wenger says he plans to break a habit and sign an established star
next month. Zenit St Petersburg claim that man will be Andrei Arshavin, whom
they value at £20m, but there is talk in Spain of the similarly priced David
Villa joining the Gunners from Valencia.
Aston Villa are also feeling acquisitive. Backed by the club’s American owner,
Randy Lerner, Martin O’Neill wants to push for Champions League
qualification by augmenting his attacking options and is linked with a range
of strikers and wingers.
Daniel Levy, Tottenham’s chairman, told his club’s general meeting: “I don’t
envisage any major transactions in or out of the club during January when
the financial world is falling apart,” but Levy is a master of the bluff and
Spurs are eyeing the £15m-rated Stewart Downing. Levy is being urged by
Harry Redknapp to spend and at Blackburn, Sam Allardyce is another new
manager hoping to refresh the squad. He would look to reinvest the proceeds
of Santa Cruz’s sale on experienced Premier League performers such as Jimmy
Bullard and Steve Finnan.
Rafael Benitez, linked with Hangeland, Glen Johnson and Emile Heskey, loves to
make a signing but, with the club’s American owners in fiscal crisis,
Benitez may have to raise funds through selling the likes of Jermaine
Pennant, Ryan Babel and possibly even £20m Robbie Keane.
At Chelsea, Luiz Felipe Scolari may also have to sell to buy and, despite
interest in a host of forwards, he has been predicting mournfully that he
will not be involved in any activity.
Portsmouth are £95m in debt and, despite Lassana Diarra’s move to Real Madrid,
still need to sell players. Johnson, Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch are
attracting covetous eyes. “The team is dismantling itself and big sides are
coming,” said defender Lauren.
Sheffield United’s Kyle Naughton is among several youngsters in the
Championship being pursued by Premier League clubs. In football terms he is
just a puppy but the word is that, talent-wise, he is no pup.
