Graphic: will it be a claret and blue new year?

On Christmas Day 1998, Aston Villa sat on top of the FA Carling Premiership. John Gregory’s vibrant team, including Paul Merson, Stan Collymore, Dion Dublin, Gareth Southgate and a teenage Gareth Barry, had won ten and lost only two of their 18 matches. Gregory purred with satisfaction.

Yet Villa capitulated. The defensive excellence of early in the season vanished, partly because of the lengthy absence of Ugo Ehiogu, their rock of a centre back, with an eye injury. They won only five of their remaining 20 games and finished in sixth place, 24 points behind Manchester United, the champions.

On Christmas Day 2008, Villa will sit in third position in the Barclays Premier League. Martin O’Neill’s silky-smooth side, including James Milner, Stiliyan Petrov and a mature Barry, have again won ten of their 18 matches but, this time, lost four. O’Neill is proud, bubbly even, but cagey.

Ten years on, will they capitulate? Having gatecrashed the top-four party, can they refuse to leave and get away with it? Under Gregory, it was win or bust; an unbeaten run would be followed by a winless streak. With O’Neill, there is less rhetoric in his oratory and more substance in his team. Players buy into his passionate speeches and will die for his cause.

It was the same at Wycombe Wanderers, Leicester City and Celtic, all of whom enjoyed success under O’Neill’s guidance. After Celtic had defeated Liverpool 2-0 in the second leg of their Uefa Cup quarter-final at Anfield in 2003, Henrik Larsson, the battle-hardened Celtic striker, noted: “He gave the greatest team talk I’d ever heard.”

Ryan Connolly, an administrator at Wycombe and lifelong fan of the club, said: “We had a winger, Steve Guppy, who was a quiet lad and didn’t like being shouted at. Instead of telling him that he had a poor touch, Martin told him that all the other players’ passes were rubbish. He’s still revered here.”

And at Leicester, too. “He’s like a father figure to the players and you don’t cross the line with your father, do you?” Alan Birchenall, the former Leicester midfield player, now a club ambassador, said. “It’s about respect. Martin knows when to put an arm round you and when to kick you up the backside.”

According to Birchenall, the job is “80 per cent man-management, 20 per cent coaching”. Yet for all of O’Neill’s soothing of egos and ruffling of feathers, there is a shrewd tactical brain lurking behind his always colourful stream of consciousness and often peculiar soundbites.

O’Neill, 56, prefers the big-man option up front. At Villa Park, it is John Carew, whom he surrounds with speedsters such as Ashley Young or Gabriel Agbonlahor to provide support, supply the crosses or collect the flick-ons. Add the grit of Milner and Steve Sidwell in midfield and the warrior-like Martin Laursen at the back and the formula is irresistible. It is what has taken Villa to near the summit, though it has come at a cost, an outlay of about £45 million in the transfer market last summer. At least O’Neill has a chairman, Randy Lerner, who just signs the cheques and walks away. No interference, no team selection “suggestions” from the American.

Lerner will have to continue digging deep next month if Villa’s Achilles’ heel, a lack of depth in their squad, is not to be exposed. O’Neill recognises the reality and should his famously persuasive manner fail to produce new signings, the tigerish tilt at the title may founder. “To expect Villa to win it is a bit premature,” Birchenall said. However, Arsenal, who visit Villa Park on Boxing Day, appear confused, vulnerable, ripe for the plucking of their traditional Champions League slot.

The young Barry endured one post-Christmas collapse; the older and wiser one does not sense a repeat. “You can understand that [view] but if we get to April and we’re still up there, people will start to change their minds,” he said. “In ’98, we started unbelievably well, then faded. But, this time, it’s a different feeling.”

- Emmanuel Adebayor accused Liverpool of persistent fouling in Sunday’s 1-1 draw against Arsenal. The Togo striker named Lucas Leiva, Jamie Carragher and Xabi Alonso as the main transgressors. “I can show you the marks on my legs,” Adebayor said. “I was kicked a lot, but I tried to stay on my feet. I don’t think I deserved a red card, but at least one of the Liverpool players did. Carragher was always fouling, so was Lucas in the middle. I made two fouls and got two yellow cards, which is not fair.”