Martin Samuel, Chief Football Correspondent
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The logic was impeccable. How many managers, Rafael Benítez wished to know, had won the Champions League? Not many. And how many had won it twice? Hardly any. And how many had reached two finals in three years? We get the point. Yet logic and Liverpool parted company long ago. The prospect of beating Internazionale, of Milan, was discussed quite enthusiastically yesterday when, on Saturday, Liverpool failed to win against Barnsley, of Barnsley. In the same breath it will be stated, very matter-of-factly, that Benítez has to win the Champions League to keep his job as if to fall short of a third final in four years was an unacceptable level of underachievement.
For the record, since Bob Paisley in 1981, there are four managers who have coached two teams to the club championship of Europe: Arrigo Sacchi (AC Milan, 1989 and 1990), Ottmar Hitzfeld (Borussia Dortmund, 1997, and Bayern Munich, 2001), Vicente Del Bosque (Real Madrid, 2000 and 2002) and Carlo Ancelotti (AC Milan, 2003 and 2007). Those miserable failures still stuck on a single European Cup victory include Fabio Capello, Marcello Lippi, Giovanni Trapattoni and Sir Alex Ferguson.
The mounting pressure on Benítez is something over which he has little control, provoked as it is by the finances of the modern elite football club. The demands will always be high at Liverpool and an outcry is to be expected when a home FA Cup tie against weak opposition ends in defeat, yet it is a new phenomenon that the same quartet of teams are expected to form the top four, year after year. Even the great Paisley came fifth in the 1980-81 season.
Were that to happen to Benítez this season, and were this Champions League campaign to end at the last-16 stage against the champions of Italy, it would without doubt cost him his job. Not because there are many managers out there better equipped to succeed him, but because the financial consequences for the club would be catastrophic and somebody would have to carry the can.
There is more riding on this evening’s game than one lousy season. Those who analyse balance sheets suggest that if Liverpool do not qualify for next season’s Champions League, Tom Hicks and George Gillett Jr, the club owners, will not be able to service the overdraft on the most recent refinancing agreement. They will then have two choices: to make up the shortfall personally, having underwritten the loans, or to raise the money by curtailing incoming transfers or, worse, selling players. Not those the fans would like to get rid of, either. Dirk Kuyt is unlikely to cover a £15 million hole in the accounts; Fernando Torres is.
Sources involved in the continuing takeover by Dubai International Capital believe that the yearly interest on loans taken out is about £28 million, which is covered by projected profits from the football club of £30 million, with roughly half provided by entry to the Champions League.
Money from European football is almost pure profit, beyond travelling expenses, but even so Liverpool’s margins are tight. To satisfy its shareholders, a standard plc would expect to bring in three times its interest repayments to feel comfortable. Since going private after the Glazer buyout, however, David Gill, the chief executive of Manchester United, says he is happy with a ratio of 1½ times the repayment.
Liverpool’s situation is more extreme, with some analysts having the club operating at only slightly better than 1:1. If this was the case, the moment Liverpool’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League ended, the lenders would know that the club could not cover their annual interest charges without secondary action. A huge amount, therefore, hangs on the next two months under Benítez.
He has a good team, but not a great team if they are without Torres or Steven Gerrard and still very much a work in progress. Certain young players will improve with age, but the limitations of others are being exposed by the present predicament and Benítez will need to enter the transfer market again in the summer. Hicks and Gillett insist that £45 million of the £350 million refinancing agreement is earmarked for player improvement but priorities must change if there is any possibility of default on a loan.
Benítez, as an intelligent man, will appreciate the viciousness of this circle. He needs the best players to qualify for the Champions League, but if he does not qualify he will not get the funds to buy the best players.
“I am not thinking about the money,” he said. “The squad is much better than last year, we have a lot of young players that are going forward, but other areas need to improve. When you have bad moments you see the character of everyone and I see our future in the way people respond. I remember when Arsenal won, maybe, one cup in a few years, but had players coming through. We are in that position now.”
If that sounds strange coming from a manager whose team have been in two European finals in three years, he was perhaps talking about the altogether more demanding slog of a Premier League season.
The Champions League is what Benítez does best, however, and Inter Milan will not be fooled by recent aberrations. The pressure is on Liverpool, particularly if the figures, like so much about Benítez’s regime, no longer add up.
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Benitez has bought too many average players. He also has no idea what his best side is. Mourihno would turn them into serious title contenders. Its' funny that the so called pundits have tipped them to win the league every year for past 3-4 years.
A Morris, Manila,
There are many good teams in the european competitions, but few are the great ones. The differences between them are the PLAYING IDENTITY week-in-week-out on the pitch. What Liverpool lack of is that kind of systems....that they desperately needed to get over the top tier competition in EPL.
Due to the growing financial disperancies between premier league clubs, winning the premiership is probably the most difficult thing to do any national competition in the world. Did anybody watch our game (yes, I'm liverpool fans)? We just simply don't have the flair and vision as a team on how to score goals (and not just creating chances) every week.
I somehow can't totally blame Benitez though. I believe he truly understand that Liverpool has to act like a corporation that keeps on making profit (or goals for this matter) whoever the CEOs (or players)... and what he need is a support from each of us, as well as lil rear-kicking just to remind him that faith goes along with continous review
Stefanus, Jakarta, Indonesia
As a Liverpool fan I completely disagree with what mark from Thailand says about Benitez!
Every manager makes the odd bad purchase (Nunez, Josemi, Morientes), and despite these Rafa has managed to bring in players like Arbeloa, Babel and of course Torres who are doing very well under his management.
We are having problems in the league, and these do need to be rectified. But along with what I think is the majority of reds fans I still believe Rafa is the man to bring us success in all competitions, not just the champions league.
The Barnsley game was a mess, but I think our problems are being over exaggerated by the media. We're still top 4 material, we just need to prove that in the title race next season. YNWA
Sam Howes, Liverpool, UK
To many of the commentators you are starting to sound like Tottenham fans, pining for the "good old days".
Get things in perspective, you are only about 3-4 players short of being a team capable of winning the league, Benitez is a good manager, as good as wenger or ferguson, the only difference is the quality of squads they have.
John Morey, Gloucester,
Re Mark Philips post.
You are i would guess a Liverpool fan, RB has spent so much on players and has the habit of turning mediocre ones into bad ones. Yes Liverpool have Gerrard and Torres but appart from that they have a disjoineted playing style that Newcastle would be proud of. There is no longer a big 4 only a big 3.
mark shepperson, Chaing Mai, Thailand
Football is a game of skill, morale and luck - in about equal measure. That's what makes it interesting. It's what made the "Pools" such a lottery. Pundits who base their theories on the outcome of particular matches (and let's face it, they all do) aren't worth listening to. They're just the "guy down the pub" talking crap.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
That bad squad that Rafa inherited was the basis of the one that won the Champions League the year after.
Tim, Spalding,
I dont think there is any shortage of logic in the Liverpool situation.
On a 38 game basis they are short of 1 or 2 players to challenge for the league. Yet on a one of game they can beat anyone.
rafa inherited a poor squad, that was over 30 points behind the team that finishes top the season before he took charge. Since then he has spent a large amount, but also recouped a large amount too. Meaning his net is around 80 mil ( or the amount United were tipped to have paid last season for Hargreaves, Nani, Anderson and putting the money in place for Tevez).
The Liverpool squad is solid and strong, but when Torres and Gerrard dont turn it on they are short of quality.
Liverpool are in the situation United were in when Rafa took over, solid but just need to add the flair ( something they added with Rooney, Tevez, Ronaldo , Carrick for around 60 mil).
Hopefully Rafa will get another season, and money to spend in the summer to buy a few more class acts, then logic might not be defied.
Mark Phillips, Liverpool,
On the other hand, I recall this columnist praising Steve MacLaren's team selection for England vs Croatia - especially the choice of the rookie goalie......So hard to take criticism of Benitez from this particular source!
Timon, Witney , UK
It's a strange position to be in for a club. Two Champions league finals in three years but in danger of being also rans in the league. The big money is in Europe but to rely on your European campaign has shades of leeds all over.
D whitts, sheffield,
Is it just me or are more clubs now playing with fire, this is almost a leeds scenario and look what the dream did to them
even lesser lights are going to the wall having recovered from the itv digital fiasco now when it should be all about working within budgets out goes sanity in comes mr sunshine (never gonna rain on our parade)
look at gretna almost totally finished, one mans dream (and he actually is a very nice genuine guy who put his money where his mouth was I only hope this is a setback and not Mr Milesons finale) but without his werewithal they are going to go down the leagues faster than they come up
Richard Dow, Stenhousemuir, Stirlingshire
As an Evertonian and loyal scouser I am only too pleased to acknowledge the incredible history and tradition of Liverpool Football Club. I am, however, dismayed by the apparent surrendering of such a great background to the self-evident carpetbaggers from the States. If anyone ever thought they were in it for anything more than a quick buck then that's naivity in the extreme. There are dangers that Liverpool's finances, as they now stand, are such that failure to qualify for the Champions League next season could precipitate a disaster on the scale of Leeds Utd. Whilst there will be many scoffing at such a notion, it fills me with dread. If a bedrock of the British sporting establishment can be threatened by such short-termism then what hope for the rest of football.
Terry McGuire, Liverpool, UK
Phil Barnes - that is one of the worst jokes I have heard in a very long time. And trust me I've heard some bad ones.
Bob Evans - I like the sentiments of your piece, but please remember that the only reason Shanks spent so much time at Everton was that LFC tried to make a clean break when he retired. This was so that Paisley would not have a legend hanging over him in the way that the first few post-Busby United managers did, leading ultimately to the second division.
Paul F, Liverpool,
rafa and liverpool did not expect to win the champions league
in his first year but they did he than won the FA cup then reached the champions league final again, this of corse according to most of the media is classed as a job loosing
cv, liverpools problems are player driven they simpley are not
putting the effort in and it does not help that at the same time they are running to the press with snide remarks because they are not picked every week .
seamus, dublin, ireland
Howdy, Jon from Liverpool!
*Waves from 4th*
Ravo Stanley, Liverpool,
just heard on radio city that Rafa's will be sacked and replaced by John Barnes and sammy Lee as caretacker managers till the end of the season. Apparently Hicks and Gillet reckon BarnsLee has a winning ring to it !!
Phil Barnes , chichester, uk
It could be worse, we could be Evertonians!
Jon, Liverpool, UK
The wider issue, touched on in this article is that even if Benitez does finish 4th this year the finances are soooo tight that I doubt much in the form of Net cash for player accquisitions will be made available. Even if they do well in the league AND do well in the CL there is still the question of where the additional £250m or so for the new stadium will come from ... hicks and gillette don't have it, the club cannot afford it.
The nightmare scenario of course is being knocked out by Inter and not finishing 4th, player sales will have to happen, Benitez will go, new money won't come in for more players and without new money what chance a new Great manager. A sale of the club will be the only option but hicks and gilletes valuation makes this difficult to impossible.
abharrisson, london,
There they are the loyal Liverpool followers of Liverpool.......Oh no! wait a minute, I mean Southampton, Cyprus, Melbourne, Ireland and Plymouth.
D.Heath, London, England
Thank you. A very well balaced article at last. As a Liverpool fan i know full well that the manager will lose his job if he fails to qualify for the Champions League. However, i also believe he is the best man for the job.
The owners also need to do the maths. 2 Champions league finals in 3 years means 60 million pounds net profit just for getting to the final. (we didn't make a final in 21 years)Financialy it is better than wining the league and reaching the semi final of the CL.
My question is, who in the right mind would take over as manager at Liverpool if they (the owners) dont provide the financial support. Not one world class manager would. Reason? They are not short of offers and they hate failure.
Hence, Sam Allardice awaits fans like myself....and more misery.
Jon, southampton,
The Spirit of Shankly is live and well at Goodison Park. The Peoples Club demonstates where the soul of football really lies. Shankly was a man of the People and Football. he understood the passion and the meaning every club had in its supporters hearts. He was seen at Goodison often after leaving Anfield.
The "Spirit of Shankly " movement should not be reserved for just Liverpool fans but any supporter who feels sold out to the commercial interests of its new owner-and should not disappear if Dubai rides in.
Fortunately Everton is not in this position by pure luck!
Lets kick start SOS across the country starting with Man Utd.
A fitting legacy who must be turning in his grave at the state of his beloved game
Bob Evans, Coral Bay, Cyprus
He got lucky.
Really, really lucky.
He rode his luck.
His luck has run out.
The laws of probability always were going to catch up with him sooner or later.
These things happen...
Steve Symmons, Melbourne, Australia
the future looks bleak on and off the pitch
john toher, galway, ireland
In Rafa we trust!
Fred Bloggs, Plymouth,