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Graphic: Two's a crowd - where Robinho fits in
Come on, be honest, there is a part, even within the most optimistic Manchester City supporter, that thinks we are all going to wake up tomorrow and it will turn out to be that bloke from the News of the World again. There is no Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment, no al-Nahyan royal family and Dr Sulaiman al-Fahim turns out to be an undercover reporter with a tin of cherry blossom, two white sheets, a JCloth and an accent borrowed straight from It Ain't Half Hot Mum.
He has taped Thaksin Shinawatra coughing the lot on corruption in Thailand, plus a few idiotic asides from Garry Cook, the City executive chairman, about how this new partnership with the Middle East is going to help the club to maximise the central entity and buy Cristiano Ronaldo in the January transfer window before winning the World Series of Soccerball. At which point City return to their traditional state as the butt of a million wisecracks and the world goes back to work, sniggering.
We think this because it is inconceivable that there are people who just wish to fire money randomly at a project as traditionally flawed as this for little more than publicity and the hell of it. We see Premier League football as an extension of Dragons' Den, in which managers bring in their bright ideas - a midfield featuring Gareth Barry, Fredrik Ljungberg on £90,000 a week - and are told by commercial wizards whether these will fly. We are behind the times with these notions. The game is moving on.
Responding to the whims of Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan - the brother of the ruler of Abu Dhabi and the man behind the latest takeover - is what the future holds for clubs who wish to compete in football's upper echelon. Making money is old hat and investors wishing to balance a profit with sporting success will be gradually squeezed out.
Chelsea muscled into the elite on the tails of an owner who did not worry about the bottom line and while he remains, they will be in contention. Manchester United can hold their own because the football side of the business is brilliantly run and the finances are sound and super-sized, but they are an exception. Beyond that, if City's investors are true to their word, is a different ball game.
Danny Fiszman, one of Arsenal's biggest shareholders, said that £30million could be spent on one player if Arsène Wenger, the manager, wished, but he was operating from a comfort zone in which he knew that that statement was unlikely to be put to the test. As for Liverpool, the club were three minutes from a Champions League penalty shoot-out against Standard Liège at the qualifying stage that could have plunged them towards financial calamity. Rafael Benítez, the manager, missed out on one of his leading transfer targets this summer - Barry, of Aston Villa - because the owners did not consider him value for money and until this situation improves, the club are vulnerable. Even United will be on shifting sands once Sir Alex Ferguson retires.
Outside the elite there is money to be made from Premier League football, but only from settling for efficient mediocrity. The arrival of Sheikh Mansour and Roman Abramovich suggests that in future the big boys will have to be in it for fun, or not at all.
Freeze-frame on Newcastle United for the flip side of this story. Here is an owner, Mike Ashley, who invested in football for reasons of vanity but became increasingly alarmed at how much it was going to cost him to continue looking good. He was fine modelling his replica shirt with its preposterous KING KEV 1 lettering on the back and enjoyed hearing 50,000 sing his name during the good times of populist decisions, such as the one to replace Sam Allardyce as manager with Kevin Keegan, but he was not so keen on tipping his fortune into a black-and-white hole on the off chance it would propel the team a few places up the table.
Increasingly, Keegan has been humiliated by Ashley's appointments and actions and his departure is inevitable. At recent matches, Ashley may still have basked in his fame, sitting with Newcastle supporters, but lately a cordon of protectors has been keeping real, disgruntled fans away and it is unlikely he will be able to go walkabout around St James' Park during the next home match to judge from the angry reaction to Keegan's treatment on Tyneside yesterday.
Ashley wanted the adulation football brings but was uncomfortable with its attendant costs. The means test of the transfer window found him out as James Milner was sold to Aston Villa for £12million against Keegan's will and incoming transfers proved disappointing. Self-regard got the better of him in buying Newcastle without due diligence, but then the pragmatism of the businessman kicked in.
That will never happen at Chelsea or Manchester City. Abramovich's executives may talk of balancing the books, but the owner does not behave as if that is a remote concern. He bought Andriy Shevchenko, a friend, from AC Milan for £30million and when that did not work out, loaned him back to the same club and would appear to be ready to write off the transaction as an expensive mistake. The only reason Chelsea's bidding for Robinho stopped at less than Manchester City's is because Abramovich no doubt realised he was going against a tycoon who had even more millions to burn than him and respectfully withdrew. Whatever he offered, City were always going to top it.
Like Abramovich, Sheikh Mansour is not in it for profit. He loves sport, yes, but perhaps also sees City as the way to promote the emirate of Abu Dhabi, with Premier League ownership as a prestigious accessory, the way that the Godolphin stable owned by Sheikh Mohammed introduced the entrepreneurial strengths of Dubai to the world. At a time of political uncertainty, maybe this is also seen as an opportunity to present the Arab nations in a positive light around the world.
At Chelsea, the dynamic is different. The more that is understood of Vladimir Putin's Russia, the more the political energy behind Russian investment in sport can be recognised, too. These owners and their clubs are no longer operating within the same boundaries as Premier League rivals who value a conservative balance sheet. It is different for Wigan Athletic or Bolton Wanderers. No one expected them to get through the door to this ludicrously fancy establishment anyway; it is an achievement just to be a member.
What has been changed by the Manchester City takeover is that the most thankless job in football now is to be in charge of a club who believe that they should be big. Newcastle, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa; where do these clubs go if joining the elite requires a key to the exclusive platinum room at the billionaires' spa, the one that their gold membership card does not quite cover?
If this sounds a bleak prospect, there is one germ of consolation. There have been 22 group one horse races in Britain this year and two have been won by the Godolphin stable. The number trained by Aidan O'Brien for the associates of the Coolmore Stud in Ireland is 11. You can throw all the money at it you like, but you still need someone to put it together, train it right and bring the damn thing home.
*******
Best of the web: 'Another United or Chelsea? I can't think of anything more abhorrrent'
Many Manchester City fans were still pinching themselves today at the news of the club's takeover and the signing of Robinho, below, but while many on internet messageboards rejoiced, others found it difficult to shake off their ingrained pessimism.
“Ever since I can remember, it's felt like we've had a curse. But now with recent developments please God, please let this be our much-needed break. For way too long we have been the brunt of football jokes ... and now finally it looks like luck might be turning ... surely our fellow clubs can't begrudge us this after all we've been through?”
bluephoenix1977, manchestercity.rivals.net
“Last year the majority of City fans were in a state of euphoria, however, I was not taken in by it. This time I am. Whilst buying City is a big trophy asset to our new owners, I believe that they are in it for the long term, have City's best interests at heart and what they are saying in the press will be backed up to the hilt. Simply put, our new owners will go out and get the best.”
Uwe Rosler's Grandad, bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk
“At the end of last season I went to see City's youth team - made up almost entirely of British and Irish kids who have been nurtured through the ranks - defeat a Chelsea side, who had been acquired on a global scale, to win the Youth Cup. I know the sense of pride that I felt that night will never be repeated by anything achieved by the first team as long as we are backed by someone who simply throws cash and expects results, whether it be a dodgy Asian politician or a Middle Eastern property fund. The consortium have made it clear that they want us to be another United or Chelsea. I can't think of anything more abhorrent.”
Tony C, wsc.co.uk
“As a Chelsea fan. I envy you. I know what it's like to suffer years of hope with nothing to show for it. But a couple of weeks before the January transfer window the speculation about which players you will sign will go ballistic and, to be honest, it's a great feeling to have the world's top players linked with your club. The thrill wears off after a couple of years so enjoy it while it's fresh.”
SuperDad, bbc.co.uk/606
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