Sir Alex Ferguson believes that Manchester United's hopes of retaining the Barclays Premier League title will hinge on how his team cope with a congested fixture list over the Christmas period in the wake of their participation in the Fifa Club World Cup in Japan.

United fly to Tokyo after their Premier League match away to Tottenham Hotspur on December 13 and are not due back from the tournament, where they will play a maximum of two games, until three days before they travel to Stoke City on Boxing Day. Middlesbrough then visit Old Trafford on December 29.

“It's interesting that the bookies make Chelsea favourites for the title,” Ferguson, whose team face Everton at Goodison Park this lunchtime, said. “I think the reason for that is that we've got the World Championship in Japan, when we're away for ten days.

“Coming back from that type of tournament is a test for us. That's where the title will be decided for us - how we handle that.

“Injuries are going to be a factor as well, so we have to have a good squad available to handle going to Japan and we've also got a couple of games to make up [against Fulham and Wigan Athletic, which still have to be rescheduled because of United's involvement in the European Super Cup in August and the World Championship].

Regardless of how the Club World Cup may affect their title credentials, Ferguson will not rue their involvement in the tournament - “Of course it's worth it,” he said. “We're the only British team that's won it and we have a chance to win it for a second time” - and given that his team will have faced the eight sides who finished directly below them in the league last season away from home by the turn of the year, the United manager will back his chances should they be at or near the summit come New Year's Day.

“I'm delighted with where we are right now - the start of the season was always going to be difficult,” Ferguson said. “On New Year's Day we want to be around the top of the league to give ourselves a chance, because with those two games to make up it may prove difficult for us [if we're not].”

Nonetheless, Ferguson believes that the battle to avoid relegation will be “much tougher” than the competition for the title and it is near that relegation zone where Everton presently find themselves.

David Moyes's team are seeking a first win in eight matches in all competitions and a first victory at Goodison Park this season, with the Everton manager well aware of the threat that Wayne Rooney poses. The England forward, who turned 23 yesterday, will reach a century of goals should he score against his former club today, but Moyes believes that it might be “another couple of years before you see the best of him”.

Ferguson will have taken with a pinch of salt Ramon Calderón's claims yesterday that Real Madrid will stop pursuing Cristiano Ronaldo unless United indicate a willingness to sell, and of more concern to the manager is the future of Owen Hargreaves.

Should the tendinitis problem in Hargreaves's right knee not show any signs of improvement over the next week, the England midfield player could be sent to see a specialist in Leicester, where the prospect of surgery is likely to be discussed.

Ben Foster, the United and England goalkeeper, has indicated that he may have to go back out on loan again in a bid to revive his career for club and country after a succession of injuries.

Half-run races

Sir Alex Ferguson believes that his Manchester United side need to be at the top of the table on New Year's Day if they are to retain their title, but only four of the past ten teams leading the way on the first day of the year have gone on to become champions.

2007-08 Leaders on New Year's Day: Arsenal Champions: Manchester United

2006-07 Manchester United; Manchester United

2005-06 Chelsea; Chelsea

2004-05 Chelsea; Chelsea

2003-04 Manchester; United Arsenal

2002-03 Arsenal; Manchester United

2001-02 Leeds United; Arsenal

2000-01 Manchester United; Manchester United

1999-2000 Leeds United; Manchester United

1998-99 Aston Villa; Manchester United