From the weather forecast for the Chinese Grand Prix yesterday, with the fringes of the approaching Typhoon Krosa influencing Shanghai, it was obvious that Lewis Hamilton’s chances of clinching the Formula One drivers’ title could be affected by the conditions.

After his masterful performance in appalling conditions to win the Japanese Grand Prix the week before and set up his title shot in China, however, expectations were high and even Hamilton was openly talking about finishing the championship off before the Brazilian Grand Prix in two weeks.

But although the weather was hardly dramatic in Shanghai during the race, its changeability and the ragged edge between the wet and dry phases early in the contest presented the teams and drivers with a tricky challenge, and both Hamilton and McLaren were caught out.

The question of whether Hamilton was pushing harder than his championship position required him to, or whether it was more the case that the McLaren pits team erred in not bringing him in sooner, will be debated all the way to Brazil and beyond if this error proves fatal to his championship chances.

Either way, the driver-team combination got it completely wrong as Hamilton went from pacesetter and champion-in-waiting to his first retirement of the season, running off into the gravel while trying to get to the pits. Hamilton, whose lead was cut from 12 points to four with Fernando Alonso, his team-mate, finishing second, said that it was a joint decision to stay out on the wet “intermediate” tyres to try to see out the last of the forecast rain on a rapidly drying track.

“Prior to entering the pitlane for my last stop, I was constantly talking to the team,” he said. “Although my tyres were in poor condition, we took a joint decision to get through the last rain shower before changing to dry tyres. I was trying to be careful and, as a result, was not really fighting aggressively with Kimi [Raikkonen, of Ferrari]. It would have worked perfectly, but I then made a mistake coming into the pitlane and that was it. We made the right decision and it was just unfortunate.”

Martin Whitmarsh, the McLaren chief operating officer who is part of the team on the pit wall, suggested, however, that this had not been Hamilton’s decision but the responsibility of those advising him. McLaren are not known in the pitlane to be the most nimble on their feet strategically and have been caught out in the past by sticking rigidly to prerace plans, despite changing circumstances.

“Quite simply we didn’t call him in,” Whitmarsh said. “I think with hind-sight we left him out a lap too long and I think his tyres were pretty worn. The weather was pretty changeable at that time and we wanted to make sure that we weren’t taking any risks and that we had to cover Kimi. In the end, it was decided we had to come in, but at that stage it was a lap too late.”

While Hamilton took a scooter ride back to the garage, the race blazed away on a gloomy afternoon with the switch from wet to dry tyres heavily influencing the running order. At one point Robert Kubica, the Polish driver, must have dreamt that his first Grand Prix win was at hand when he found himself out in front for two laps before his BMW Sauber gave up the ghost for the third time this season.

Raikkonen was the beneficiary. Despite some brief pressure from Alonso, whose tyre strategy worked much better than Hamilton’s, the “Iceman” was able drive comfortably to his fifth win of the season, leaving him with an outside chance of winning the championship in Brazil.

“For sure he [Alonso] was pushing hard and catching me at first when I had some problems with the front tyres, but once everything started to work, I could keep the gap the same and knew we should be fine,” Raikkonen said. “I kept pushing because you never know, if it rains again, it can change the whole picture and I was happy to have some breathing space.”

For Alonso, the race and his improvement of his championship chances came to him largely by virtue of Hamilton’s retirement. At the start, the Spaniard, who was fourth on the grid, made a valiant attempt to get round Felipe Massa in third but was repelled. He fell a long way off Hamilton’s pace, but eventually got past Massa’s Ferrari at the hairpin and held on for an invaluable second place.

Despite the wet conditions, Sebastian Vettel did his reputation no harm with a fighting drive from seventeenth on the grid to fourth place, the best finish for the Toro Rosso team and the perfect way to come back from the trauma of his collision with Mark Webber in the Red Bull, which put them both out of the Japanese Grand Prix. Toro Rosso had a good day all round, with Tonio Liuzzi, Vettel’s teammate, finishing sixth.

Also in the points was the rain-master himself, Jenson Button, who took his season’s total to six with a fifth place in China, the result of being one of the first drivers to gamble on the switch to dry rubber. Button then flew through the field in a Honda that looked supercharged.

“A fantastic race and I’m very happy to come away with four points and our best result of the season,” he said. “When the track dried out, we decided to pit and go for the dry option tyre and a light fuel load. From then on I started setting fastest laps.”

Details from Shanghai

Result: 1, K Raikkonen (Fin, Ferrari) 1hr 37min 58.395sec; 2, F Alonso (Sp, McLaren Mercedes) 1:38:08.195; 3, F Massa (Br, Ferrari) 1:38:11.195; 4, S Vettel (Ger, Scuderia Toro Rosso) 1:38:51.895; 5, J Button (GB, Honda) 1:39:06.995; 6, V Liuzzi (It, Scuderia Toro Rosso) 1:39:11.995; 7, N Heidfeld (Ger, BMW Sauber) 1:39:12.595; 8, D Coulthard (GB, Red Bull Renault) 1:39:19.095; 9, H Kovalainen (Fin, Renault) 1:39:19.495; 10, M Webber (Aus, Red Bull Renault) 1:39:22.995; 11, G Fisichella (It, Renault) 1:39:24.995; 12, A Wurz (Austria, Williams Toyota) 1 lap behind; 13, J Trulli (It, Toyota) 1; 14, T Sato (Japan, Super Aguri) 1; 15, R Barrichello (Br, Honda) 1; 16, N Rosberg (Ger, Williams Toyota) 2; 17, S Yamamoto (Japan, Spyker Ferrari) 3.

Not classified: 18, R Kubica (Pol, BMW Sauber) 33 laps completed; 19, L Hamilton (GB, McLaren Mercedes) 30; 20, R Schumacher (Ger, Toyota) 25; 21, A Sutil (Ger, Spyker Ferrari) 24; 22, A Davidson (GB, Super Aguri Honda) 11. World

Championship positions

Drivers: 1, Hamilton 107pts; 2, Alonso 103; 3, Raikkonen 100; 4, Massa 86; 5, Heidfeld 58; 6, Kubica 35; 7, Kovalainen 30; 8, Fisichella 21; 9, Rosberg 15; 10, Coulthard 14; 11, Wurz 13; 12, Webber 10; 13, Trulli 7; 14, Vettel 6; 15, Button 6; 16, Schumacher 5; 17, Sato 4; 18, Liuzzi 3; 19, Sutil 1.

Manufacturers: 1, Ferrari 186pts; 2, BMW Sauber 94; 3, Renault 51; 4, Williams Toyota 28; 5, Red Bull Renault 24; 6, Toyota 12; 7, Scuderia Toro Rosso 8; 8, Honda 6; 9, Super Aguri Honda 4; 10, Spyker Ferrari 1.

Qualifying: 1, Hamilton 1min 35.908sec; 2, Raikkonen 1:36.044; 3, Massa 1:36.221; 4, Alonso 1:36.576; 5, Coulthard 1:37.619; 6, Schumacher 1:38.013; 7, Webber 1:38.153; 8, Heidfeld 1:38.455; 9, Kubica 1:38.472; 10, Button 1:39.285; 11, Liuzzi 1:36.862; 12, Vettel 1:36.891; 13, Trulli 1:36.959; 14, Kovalainen 1:36.991; 15, Davidson 1:37.247; 16, Rosberg 1:37.483; 17, Barrichello 1:37.251; 18, Fisichella 1:37.290; 19, Wurz 1:37.456; 20, Sato 1:38.218; 21, Sutil 1:38.668; 22, Yamamoto 1:39.336.

Final Grand Prix: Brazilian (Interlagos): Oct 21.