There could be no better place for Lewis Hamilton to win the Formula One world drivers’ title than in front of thousands of passionate Brazilian motor-racing fans packed into Interlagos this afternoon. Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen go into the race knowing they can all be crowned world champion, but for Hamilton the maths could not be any easier – if he finishes ahead of his two rivals on the circuit he will be the 2007 champion, at 22 the youngest to achieve the feat, and the first to do so in his rookie season.

The track has been completely resurfaced again and appears very grippy. The name of the track, Interlagos, means “between the lakes” and that provides a clue as to why the ground here is constantly shifting. But the new surface, combined with the two softest compound tyres available from Bridgestone and the unusual anticlockwise direction of the track will conspire to make this a physically demanding race, especially given that dry, hot weather is forecast. The left side of the driver’s neck takes a pounding in the fast curves which combine to form the challenging final uphill section of the lap.

The drivers will have extensions to the right-hand side of their cockpit head protectors, giving them something to lean against. The wise drivers will use these from the start, striving for prevention rather than cure, although they will have tried the tweaks out already at the Turkish Grand Prix in August. It’s a horrible feeling when your neck cannot control and support your head and crash helmet under heavy braking or cornering. It becomes easier to make mistakes, too.

This track is also tough on the cars. Set in a natural bowl, it’s a difficult combination of that very long pit straight, heavy contour changes, bumps, and aggressive kerbs. Good top speed is essential because the pit straight leads into one of F1’s primary overtaking spots, the Senna Esses. The teams will be looking very carefully at their maximum speed while trying not to sacrifice grip and performance in the all-important middle sector.

It is a track at which we have seen a lot of rear-end collisions as drivers misjudge their braking. It is also particularly treacherous should it rain against expectation because a river forms across the track between turns two and three which still flows long after the rest of the track has dried out. The pit straight is where Alonso and Mark Webber had their accidents in the wet 2003 race. The car is so loaded at this point that if it begins to slide you can be in the outside wall in a heartbeat. The pit wall itself creates a feeling of being in a tunnel and this makes for a high-tension scene as the cars line up at the start, the first half of the grid on an upslope, and the rest on a downslope.

In terms of the straight-line speed Ferrari have tended to be very strong. But I would expect the McLarens to be mighty through the twists and over the bumps and kerbs. Free practice running suggested little to choose between the two and this short lap of around 72 seconds always generates a close grid.

Hamilton has never driven here before but it’s not a difficult place to learn and we saw in China that he was pretty much up to speed after just five laps. Of his four wins so far this season, three have been on tracks new to him. The variable levels of moisture on the track on Friday did challenge him initially though, and his team too. They used two sets of wet tyres during free practice, which is in breach of the regulations, and yet again Hamilton found himself nervously in the dock fearing the worst. Honda and Super Aguri made the same mistake, probably because this is a regulation which was temporarily suspended earlier in the season due to tyre quantity supply problems. To maintain warm tyres in marginal conditions, McLaren slipped on a spare set directly from the heating blankets, but no real gain was achieved by any of the three teams and the race stewards made the sensible decision to fine the teams a relatively token amount and confiscate one set of wet tyres.

So what’s going to happen in the first three-way F1 shootout since 1986? Hamilton has the best mathematical chance, but that’s what we said as he went into China sitting on a 12-point lead. That has been reduced to four points over Alonso, with Raikkonen a further three behind. If the race is dry there are realistically only four cars in it. Lewis has to drive strategically; staying just in front of or behind Alonso will do just fine. Second to his Spanish teammate would be enough to clinch the title for Hamilton, but the danger for him is if Alonso manages to position the Ferraris between them.

Felipe Massa is a wild card. The victor here last year, he’s the only one of the top four out of championship contention. The good news for him this week is a surprise new Ferrari contract until the end of 2010. The bad news is that he will probably be playing tail-gunner to Kimi at his home race. Would he take a McLaren out? I really don’t believe so. But he will be duty-bound to make life difficult for them given half a chance. He must be hoping that in the final laps Raikkonen can’t take the title because Massa looks to have the speed to win again.

Raikkonen must win. The rest is out of his hands and that is frustrating for a man who should probably already have two championships on his CV instead of none.

The biggest fascination is Alonso and how he will approach this race. The team have shown remarkable patience with him after his tantrums this year despite being provided with a championship-winning car and a salary well north of £15m. He is difficult to read in that he is often destructive, but then appears to go on a charm offensive possibly as his other competitive options outside of McLaren become less clear now that, for example, Ferrari have both Raikkonen and Massa signed up long term. All of the former drivers I have spoken to are shocked by his behaviour. I would have been tempted to leave him at home and use test driver Pedro de la Rosa instead. Of course this might well have turned out to be an own goal because, as things stand, McLaren have two horses in the championship race and Ferrari only one.

Alonso can’t afford to clash with Hamilton or anyone else if he wants to win the title. But if he’s in a position where he cannot win it, would he rather Raikkonen or teammate Hamilton win? And if the answer is Raikkonen, would he take Hamilton out near the end of the race? I don’t believe he would, especially as he may yet want to stay at McLaren, but this season has been so extraordinary that such a possibility is a regular topic of conversation in the paddock here.

If Hamilton wins he fully deserves it. It’s amazing what he has achieved this year. Sure, he’s had the best tools to do the job, but the flair and bravery with which he has driven in his debut season has impressed enormously, as has the way he has kept his young head through the most challenging of circumstances. This afternoon he faces the biggest test so far, so be sure to hold your breath as they head down to turn one from the start, and each and every lap thereafter.