For some weeks, the majority view in the Formula One paddock has been that Fernando Alonso could not stay for another season with McLaren. Even among hardheaded judges - people who have grown used to indulgent behaviour by prima donna drivers - the feeling is that the Spanish former world champion has stepped beyond the point at which reconciliation is possible.

But is it not in McLaren’s clear interests that, despite Alonso’s conduct, they should keep hold of him? After all, in the amoral world of Formula One, it does not matter what you do in your spare time or even at work, so long as you can win grands prix and at least be in contention to deliver championships. As one insider put it: “In this business, people are very pragmatic.”

Contract

Alonso, after his turbulent first year at the team, is contracted to McLaren for two more years on an annual salary believed to be in the region of £14 million. The team has planned its campaign with him at the heart of it, winning races and titles, and it has attracted sponsors as part of the Alonso package. Backing out of that now will be disruptive and expensive and was certainly not envisaged as an option when the season began. What is more Alonso is an asset to the team which cannot be cheaply traded and reaching a financial settlement with another team for his services will be difficult.

Driver swaps

If Alonso were to leave, the team would lose a formidable competitor to a rival and would get a driver in his place of less ability and experience. Thus, even with the history of bad blood, the team is better off with Alonso inside it than outside it.

The Spaniard may have brought unhappiness, he may have threatened Ron Dennis, the team principal, he may have claimed his own mechanics were nobbling his car, but he is a double world champion with an excellent record on the track and a level of experience that makes him arguably the most complete driver in the sport.

The present thinking envisages Alonso rejoining Renault, his former team, and McLaren doing a straight swap of Alonso for Heikki Kovalainen. Another theory is that Alonso’s place at McLaren might be taken by Nico Rosberg, should a way be found to release him from his contract at Williams. In both cases, McLaren would be getting a talented driver who is less experienced than Alonso and probably less good. With Lewis Hamilton in the other seat, this hardly makes sense.

With Alonso at Renault, the French team, which has struggled this season, will be more potent and could pose a championship threat alongside Ferrari, giving McLaren two teams to battle against rather than one.

Bad blood - does it matter?

Some would argue that whether or not people are getting on with each other is irrelevant in a racing team.

The main thing is results, so long, that is, that the tension does not spill over into hot-headedness on the track. Proponents of this theory point out that, bad as the relationship between Alonso and Hamilton has been, it is nothing like the visceral hatred that developed between two of their predecessors at McLaren, Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna.

Reconciliation

Perhaps the crux of the matter is whether or not reconciliation between Alonso and McLaren is possible. Among those with whom he would have to mend fences would be his own mechanics and race engineers, Hamilton, his teammate, and Dennis and other senior managers. Dennis himself is good at reconciliation but how likely is it that even a thoroughgoing “love-in” behind closed doors at Woking could repair the damage done this season? Hamilton has already said he would prefer it if Alonso leaves and even Dennis has made it clear there is a long way to go to rebuild a sense of trust in the team.

Mutual interest

If there are strong arguments in favour of McLaren keeping Alonso, there are equally strong reasons why the Spaniard himself may want to stay. After all, the door to Ferrari looks shut for at least a year with Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa signed up at Maranello, and none of the alternatives looks appealing. Renault may be uncompetitive again, Toyota have lots of money to offer but no racing record to speak of and BMW Sauber is booked up with Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld. McLaren may not produce a competitive car for 2008, but they are surely a better bet for Alonso than anyone else.