Will Fernando Alonso be world champion again and, if he does make it, when will that be? It will almost certainly not be in 2008, a season in which the Spaniard looks destined to be scrapping in the midfield with drivers from BMW Sauber, Williams and Red Bull.

On this basis it is hard not to conclude that, in the battle of wills and wits with Lewis Hamilton, his erstwhile team-mate at McLaren Mercedes, Alonso has ended up paying the higher price. Out of McLaren, unable to move directly to Ferrari, earning less than he would have done and, most important, stuck with a car that cannot win him a third world title, his critics will say that he is lying in the bed he made for himself.

By contrast, Hamilton is even more firmly established within McLaren, he has all the advantages that continuity brings, he is the beneficiary of a generous new contract and he is driving a car, the MP4-23, that should be capable of winning races. Perhaps Hamilton’s biggest loss is Alonso, a team-mate whose technical expertise has not been replaced with the appointment of Heikki Kovalainen.

Some saw rejuvenation in Alonso when he was presented for the first time by Renault this year at a fairly chaotic car launch for the R28 in Paris. And indeed the mood from the subsequent pre-season tests was generally positive. Others detected a resignation in the man who was once the youngest world champion in Formula One; a year older, a year wiser, psychologically bruised, the talk is that the legacy of what happened at McLaren has left wounds which have barely healed.

One thing that stood out is that Alonso was on a far bigger high when he first started at McLaren in January 2007, than the rather jaded individual who explained what he was going to do with a new Renault this season, a car that is better than its forerunner but still not good enough to get to the top of the podium. The impression is of someone, “once bitten, twice shy”, keeping his inquisitors at arm’s length.

Of course Renault are delighted to have their prodigal son back after his year away. The team are enjoying positive momentum after a disappointing season last year and the Alonso factor is a huge plus for them. The question remains, however, just how long will this arrangement last. In sport, as in any walk of life, going back to old alliances can be a regressive step — Kevin Keegan returning to manage Newcastle United is a case in point.

Much as Renault deny it, the belief in the paddock is that Alonso is unlikely to give his former employers a second chance if this year’s machine fails to deliver the sort of results he desires and a move to Ferrari for 2009 is still a likelihood.

Given what we know about the lack of competitiveness of the R28, it is hard not to conclude that this year in the blue-and-orange livery of Renault will thus be little more than a water-treading exercise before Alonso climbs into the bright red driving suit thought to be on offer at Maranello in nine months’ time.

In the meantime Alonso has been saying all the right things. Renault were the only realistic choice for this season, he is delighted to be back with the team and he is confident that everything will be done to improve the car’s performance. As for the past, he claims he neither thinks about it nor cares about it. “The past is the past, so everything is closed,” he says.

After his struggles with Hamilton, it looks as though Alonso has got Nelson Piquet Jr, his new team-mate, neatly confined into the No 2 role, whether the young Brazilian likes it or not. Take for example new parts coming out of the factory. It seems Alonso will get first go at the go-faster stuff. “If everything is new on the car . . . they will try to put it in my car first, try to understand it, try to develop that part, then it goes to Nelsinho. This is something I feel comfortable with,” he said.

And while his relationship with Ron Dennis at McLaren went from cordiality to mistrust and eventually outright hostility, he has no fears about returning to work for Flavio Briatore, his old boss, who has the right ideas — according to Alonso — when it comes to driver management. “I know Flavio personally . . . I know that he will manage the situation and will always help the driver who has more possibilities,” the Spaniard said.

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