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I like statistics. They paint a picture and show trends. Before qualifying at Fuji Speedway, Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton had raised their game to a new level and shared the front row of the grid in four of the past six races. Until the final moments of qualifying yesterday, another front-row lockout by the two title contenders looked likely. Then Massa finished a dejected and confused fifth, while Hamilton delivered a masterpiece of a lap for a critical pole position.
Ominously, Kimi Raikkonen’s Ferrari starts alongside the Briton for the long haul and heavy braking down to turn one. Heikki Kovalainen, Hamilton’s teammate and championship rear-gunner, is exactly that, right behind him.
You may think that Hamilton has had the upper hand over Massa more often than not this year. The stats say otherwise. Before today’s Japanese Grand Prix, Massa had led almost a third of this season’s laps – over 60 laps more than Hamilton. This confirms the Brazilian has been in fine form, although he admitted here that he knew both how to win and how to lose, revealing a glimmer of self-doubt.
Here’s another statistic. Massa’s teammate, Raikkonen, has equalled the record for the number of fastest race laps in a season (10). He has often had the quickest car, but because of poor qualifying and race errors, he has not been delivering the results. The underlying pace is there, but Massa has out-qualified him, 11 races to five so far.
The combination of seven pole positions and 11 fastest laps confirms that the Ferrari is the slightly quicker car of the two title contenders and could yet spoil Hamilton’s championship party. Hamilton is on the limit to keep his nose in front. Were Ferrari not so lacking in confidence on some of their pit lane procedures, Massa could even be favourite for the title.
Their duel is not the only thing dominating paddock talk here. The freefall of world stock markets has blown a chill wind through the pit garages. Many of Formula One’s benefactors are either financial institutions or car manufacturers dependent on global sales, and there is deep concern at how a recession will affect this extravagantly expensive sport.
For some time FIA president Max Mosley has been talking of the need for F1 to cut costs dramatically. There is suddenly much talk about standardisation of certain components and sharing drivetrains and energy recovery systems, which could save tens of millions in research and production budgets. Measures originally planned for introduction in 2010 need to be brought forward. High-level meetings to discuss cost-cutting will begin immediately after next week’s Chinese Grand Prix.
In previous economic crises F1 was a specialist activity on a tiny scale compared with today. Teams could, to some extent, cut their cloth according to the conditions. But of the 152 teams that have ever started a grand prix, only the current 10 remain – and some of those will come under pressure. With each team employing up to 1,000 people, it’s not easy to scale down. Laying off a specialised, expensively trained workforce is not desirable, easy or cheap.
However, even in hard times you still need to promote your product, and F1 is a compelling platform for corporate image and global sales. Tyre company Michelin has apparently noticed, as Goodyear did before it, an adverse effect on its business since leaving F1.
It will be interesting to see if the new economic environment means the end of mega-million-dollar driver retainers. I suspect not: the 20 cars on the grid struggle to find more than 10 world-class drivers. Drivers have a rarity value, and if many vehicle parts are shared, driver ability becomes even more important.
Of more concern is the fate of the independent teams. Williams has two financial services companies – RBS and Iceland’s Baugur – as main sponsors. The team has announced a new primary sponsorship with Philips, but we have already lost Super Aguri this season. If F1 were to lose a revered name such as Williams, or Toro Rosso or Force India, this would send out a dire signal.
It is feasible to have brakes, wheels, tyres and other ancillaries common to all teams, but if the technology-driven manufacturers are forced into simply badging a standard-issue engine, I suspect they will leave the sport. The possibility of a team spending £250m a year will surely soon be over, and the perilous economic situation might force F1 to take a large sensible pill washed down with unity and common sense.
However, the insanely competitive nature of the business means that most of the attention will focus on the next race, seven days from now in Shanghai. Just as it should.
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