In an ideal world, Lewis Hamilton would be able to shut himself away for the rest of this week, retreat into his family circle and the company of his trusted colleagues, and concentrate on clearing his mind for Sunday's crucial Chinese Grand Prix, in Shanghai. Then, perhaps, he might have a chance to restore his balance and confidence in his ability to close out the Formula One World Championship at only the second time of asking.

The reality for Hamilton, however, is different. After a day or two off in Tokyo, he will be thrown back to the wolves, with appearances and interviews all the way to the grid in Shanghai.

Does he regret the way he drove in Japan? Does he agree with those who say that he chokes under pressure? Does he feel that it was wrong to accuse Felipe Massa, his championship rival, of deliberately crashing into him? Is he good enough to be champion? Is he worried that he has handed the initiative to Massa and Ferrari? Is he haunted by what happened this time last year when he threw away a rookie championship in the last two races?

In truth, one of Hamilton's outstanding qualities is his ability to bounce back from failure, something his father, Anthony, drilled into him as a boy when he was racing go-karts. “Always take the positives from a bad weekend” was the mantra and Hamilton learnt his lesson well. So he is likely to get himself back in the “zone”, but there is not much time and even he is going to struggle to deal with the pressure.

After his first-corner impetuosity at the Fuji Speedway on Sunday that earned him a drive-through penalty for pushing Kimi Raikkonen, of Ferrari, off the track and a finish outside the points, the big danger for Hamilton in China is that he and McLaren will swing too far in the opposite direction. The watchwords in his mental preparation are likely to be “patience”, staying “calm”, the “long game” - everything Hamilton forgot in Japan.

The problem with this is that caution is not Hamilton's natural style. He is an exuberant racer, a born fighter and a competitor who thrives on the cut and thrust of wheel-to-wheel combat. Trying to suppress those instincts could be as costly as surrendering to them proved at Fuji. So Hamilton and his inner circle - his father, Phil Prew, his race engineer, and the McLaren team managers - have to strike the right balance; he must be up for the challenge in China, but not lose his head if anyone overtakes him.

Ferrari are not going to miss a trick on Sunday. They may be more friendly on the surface since Jean Todt, the former team principal, surrendered his secretive empire to Stefano Domenicali, but there is no more ruthless a team in the paddock and they will be plotting Hamilton's downfall with their customary artfulness. The plan will be to try to provoke Hamilton into making more errors and they are likely to use Raikkonen as their main weapon.

Hamilton must prevail this year after all the hype that has attended his every move since coming into Formula One last season. Failure down the “stretch” at the second time of asking would leave him and McLaren with heavy psychological baggage to lump around next season and the danger that a thrilling young talent who has earned praise from the greats of the sport will be dismissed as a nearly man.

The 23-year-old multimillionaire, who lives in tax exile in Geneva, was keeping a low profile in Tokyo yesterday and, in remarks attributed to him on his website, he said little about his travails at the Fuji Speedway. In all his comments, he seemed defensive, which is hardly surprising. He was asked whether it was true that he believes that he is a better driver than his hero, the late Ayrton Senna.

“I never said that - and I wouldn't say it about Ayrton because he's my favourite driver,” Hamilton said. “I think he's the best driver there ever was and, to this day, I still don't believe anyone would beat him. If I could achieve just a small part of what he's achieved, it would be a dream for me.”

Like the Brazilian before him, Hamilton is a worldwide sporting icon. This weekend in China, he will take another step towards confirming his greatness or underlining his fatal flaw.