IS LEWIS HAMILTON going to seize the Formula One world title today? If he crosses the finish line the answer is surely yes. Seven points clear of a Ferrari driver, the numbers are in his favour, just as they were last year. But it’s a vastly different scenario now.

Then he was fighting his teammate, too. He and his engineers, and presumably other key factions within his team, were making strategy calls to fend off the departing and fearsomely unhappy Fernando Alonso.

With the pressure of an expectant nation on his young shoulders, Hamilton got it all wrong. He arrived in sprawling Sao Paulo last year off the back of a disastrous Chinese Grand Prix, whereas this year he was the defining factor in a spectacular victory over Ferrari two weeks ago.

He enters this showdown with previous knowledge and experience, whereas for his title rival Felipe Massa it is new territory. On the grid in China Massa looked tense and had a relatively poor race, only to be elevated to second position by a teammate.

So for all those reasons I favour Hamilton’s chances more than Massa’s, despite the young Brazilian’s fine past form in his own back yard. Massa could win the race, but Hamilton should take the title. There are provisos. He is fourth on the grid, on the dirty side of the track, behind two Ferraris, also behind an out-of-position stopping Toyota and with Alonso right behind him. The first corner will be especially difficult and hazardous.

The Japanese GP showed us that Hamilton can still make errors of judgment. His racer’s instinct is his biggest strength and weakness. When it doesn’t go to plan, he momentarily defaults to immediately having to pass everything in front, as if he was still in his first cadet kart race.

Impatience has cost him dearly. Remarkably he has been a championship contender from the moment he went around the outside of the field on the first corner of his first grand prix in Melbourne last year, but these temporary “software” glitches cost him the 2007 title and will do so again today if he can’t manage the mental side. Points mean prizes but they are handed out only after the chequered flag has dropped.

In this race 12 months ago he was mugged by the Ferraris off the line and by turn four he was off the road avoiding Alonso. To be fair he survived that and it was a mystery 30-second gearbox problem that actually cost him. If he wins today he will be the youngest world champion, four months and a day younger than Alonso was in 2005.

There remain several booby traps he must avoid before tasting that sweetest of champagne. One of the biggest instinctive judgment calls you make in a racing car is when to brake for the first corner of the first lap. If he goes sailing off with front wheels locked he’s going to blow it, brake too early and he’ll lose time, positions and risk being run into.

I don’t see either Massa or Kimi Raikkonen as foul play merchants - although Massa was a bit naughty across the grass in Japan. However, Raikkonen is not going to go to a lot of trouble to avoid a fifty-fifty incident with Hamilton.

With a compliant teammate, the worst Hamilton should finish today is third. The team have decided that the drivers’ championship is an absolute priority, and winning the race or the constructors’ title is secondary. They’ll need a major Ferrari drama to take the latter anyway. There is a realistic worry about reliability given that Hamilton’s teammate Heikki Kovalainen has retired from the past two races with mechanical failures. Hamilton has yet to suffer a reliability problem this season but he’s on the third race with this gearbox, the second with this engine. He’s going to be losing around 10 horsepower, or 0.1 seconds per lap through power loss as the motor nears the end of its mileage limits.

Engines must finish two grands prix under the regulations and due to previous problems both Ferrari drivers are out of sequence and have fresh engines here. This bumpy track is hard on the suspension and drivetrain, too. Hamilton needs not to be running wide or bouncing off the sawtooth kerbs.

The prediction is at least a 60% chance of rain, often torrential here, at which point all bets are off. Alonso, Mark Webber, Michael Schumacher and others showed in the 2003 race what an unforgiving track this is on a stormy day. It’s in a natural bowl and the drainage is not good. Hamilton appears to be better equipped for those conditions than Massa, but that could come to mean nothing in standing water and heavy spray.

Aiming for the necessary three points and fifth position is too conservative. He needs the commitment to ensure optimal tyre and brake temperatures, and the appropriate level of adrenaline and concentration. The unusually cool temperatures are playing havoc with the tread surface of the dry tyres, which is another random factor for race performance. Third place may well give him a cushion back to fifth should he get a puncture or need to pit for a new nose and front wing. Generally he needs to treat the back of every car he encounters, including the backmarkers, as if it were a mule trying to kick him.

Let’s not forget the pressure on the mechanics and engineers too; crisp pitstops, immaculate car preparation and perfect race strategies are critical human challenges that can destroy championship hopes in a heartbeat. They will all be nervous.

But practice pace on new and old tyres, and high and low fuel, suggest Hamilton has all the speed and skill needed to join the illustrious list of British world champions.

FORMULA ONE’S YOUNGEST WORLD CHAMPIONS

FERNANDO ALONSO 2005 24 years, 58 days
EMERSON FITTIPALDI 1972 25 years, 273 days
MICHAEL SCHUMACHER 1994 25 years, 314 days
NIKI LAUDA 1975 26 years, 197 days
JACQUES VILLENEUVE 1997 26 years, 200 days

Hamilton can become the youngest today at 23 years and 300 days