Shanghai is a fascinating split-level place. The chaotic journey from the airport takes you along elevated motorways with great views of the high-rise cityscape. Suddenly, you descend into a whole new ground-level world of crowded people, cycles, scooters, cars, trucks and a mix of modern buildings and shanty towns.

Schumacher and Alonso versus the rest of the grid is also a different level, as, following this morning’s Chinese Grand Prix, we head into the crucial last two races of the 2006 F1 championship with precious little between two drivers who have virtually double the points of anybody else. At the halfway stage of the season Alonso appeared to be walking it, heading into Indianapolis with a 25-point lead. If Schumacher hauls in that deficit to take the title it will be the second biggest turnaround in F1 history.

Indy was the first of three crucial turning points in the battle. During the US Grand Prix weekend, Alonso wasn’t at the races. This coincided with Michelin being over-cautious after their 2005 disaster and Ferrari coming on strong. Since then, the momentum has been with Ferrari, Schumacher and Bridgestone and together they have eroded the lead of Renault, Alonso and Michelin, but with a little help. Whatever the reality, there is a perception that the cards always fall in Ferrari’ s favour in terms of penalties and rulings.

Which brings us to the second crucial turning point, the banning of mass dampers from the German Grand Prix onwards. It was a decision that hurt Renault. They have conceded it has cost them three or four tenths per lap because they had configured their whole car around it. In the midst of a title fight they didn’t want to admit it, but it was obvious. Early in the season, the Renault was the fastest thing around and Alonso could play it like a fine musical instrument despite his brutal driving style. Renault have slowly clawed back the deficit though. In Hungary, the Spaniard had the chance to win thanks to a magnificent performance that took full advantage of the superiority of his tyres in the damp conditions, but a failed wheel nut brought his retirement.

The third critical point was at Monza three weeks ago, and the penalty handed out to Alonso for supposedly impeding the qualifying lap of Ferrari’s Felipe Massa. Renault believe they could have been first or second in that race had Alonso started from his rightful place on the grid, but it is irrelevant because his engine blew up anyway.

So it has all resulted in this tight shootout. I cannot see anything other than Ferrari and Schumacher winning the title. Schumacher has a fast, reliable car and Bridgestone look like they have the upper hand in the tyre war. The German also has the upper hand when it comes to teammates, with Massa more likely to beat Alonso than Renault’s Giancarlo Fisichella is to beat Schumacher. Massa suffered a 10-place penalty and started the race from the back of the grid. Schumacher made the best of his tyres in wet conditions to qualify sixth, with Renault and Honda locking out the front two rows. Even so, Schumacher must be favourite to sign off his career with an eighth championship. The only thing that can prevent it is if something unusual happens — a wet race or two, an engine failure or a freak incident with a backmarker.

It is feasible that we will have further rain in Japan or Brazil, or both. Historically these two events are prone to it. In this case the situation would favour Michelin and Renault because of their extraordinary intermediate tyre. I drove these on the Red Bull a few weeks back at a wet Silverstone and the grip was phenomenal. It was with this tyre that Alonso was in a league of his own at Hungary before his wheel nut fell off, and with which he dominated qualifying in China.

It’s also feasible we will see more engine failures. This has a lot to do with the engine regulations that are coming in for next year. The teams have to submit engines that have started two races this year as the spec for next season, when they will be restricted to 19,000rpm. So the boffins will be trying to produce an engine that hangs onto this year’s championship using 20,000 revs but can be optimised next year at 19,000rpm. It is a very tricky balancing act.

Schumacher has fallen apart under pressure in the past whereas Alonso’s composure impresses me enormously. I never thought he would keep Schumacher behind him in Turkey with a slower car, but Alonso kept his head. Both drivers are on exit routes. Schumacher is heading for retirement and the team want to sign that off with another championship, and Alonso is on his way to McLaren. But the real pressure is on the German, because it’s his last chance. If things are still close in the last race it will get ugly. I would be amazed if Schumacher pulled a stunt such as he did during the title-deciders at Adelaide in 1994 or Jerez in 1997 — with a deliberate foul. But it is his default setting when the crucial moment comes. It could come to that becauseAlonso in determined mood is an almost irresistible force and Schumacher in “must win” mode is the ultimate immoveable object.

There’s not much love between them either.

It will go right down to the wire, and I believe Schumacher will win, but I hope Alonso does. He’s been the outstanding driver of the year and deserves to retain his world drivers’ crown.