If you want to put some money on a man to be near the business end of the Open after 54 holes, then KJ Choi is your man. First of all, the Korean is leading after 36 holes, so that helps. Then he can be said to be so solid he is virtually immovable by any wind and plenty of wind is forecast for this part of Lancashire on the day of the third round and plenty of rain for that matter. Lastly, he has won already this year in the US, taking his total of victories there to seven and he finished tied for eighth at Carnoustie last year.

The Open is all about experience and patience. Skill is high on the list but not highest. This is Choi's 9th Open so he knows what goes on. He is skilful, expressionless and appears to be at home in this part of Lancashire.

Will Norman hang on? I think even he would doubt that. It was interesting in his post-round press conference that he didn't say he thought he could win and if he, one of the most positive players in golf, does not fully believe in himself then there is no reason why we should. Norman will do well to score less than 73 in the third round.

Remember, the Greg Norman we are seeing at Royal Birkdale is a part-time golfer, a man who plays considerably more tennis with his wife, the former Chris Evert, than he does golf. He is competing in next week's British Seniors Open but he describes himself as a social golfer now and nothing like the competitive player he was in his prime.

What he has going for him is his physical condition. "Greg has the body of a 23-year-old and the mind of a 53-year-old" Justin Rose said. In addition he has nearly 40 years experience of competing on the sand-based courses that are the true links, first in Australia where he grew up, then while on the European tour and finally occasionally in the US.

Even so, someone like Jim Furyk, the 2003 US Open champion, would be a better bet. Furyk has the unyielding, never-say-die attitude needed to get through two days that are forecast to be wet and windy. Look at the way Furyk swings his clubs and you realise there is a man of great individual character holding on to them.

Padraig Harrington finds himself in a comfortable position, two over par and three strokes behind Choi. Harrington, the Open champion, has a good chance. Indeed, any competitor within eight strokes of Choi who is one under par and the only man under par, has a chance over the next 36 holes. So far the 137th Open has been right up Harrington's alley. He more than almost anyone thrives in difficult conditions and conditions have certainly been difficult and so has the course at Royal Birkdale this week.

Sergio Garcia was the pre-tournament favourite and though he has not played at his best he is only six strokes behind Choi and should by no means be ruled out. The one man who almost certainly will start to slip backwards is David Duval, who has so little experience at this level these days that he cannot possibly cope both the difficult golf course and the wretched conditions.