One of the axioms of rowing - indeed, of most sports - is that a good big 'un will generally beat a good little 'un, a theory Duncan Holland, the Cambridge head coach, did not shy away from after his crew weighed in at almost 12lb a man lighter than Oxford yesterday for the Xchanging Boat Race on Saturday.

“Statistically, the bigger crews tend to win. If you go to any rowing championship, that's usually the case,” Holland said. “But there are plenty of examples of the lighter crew winning. We're doing what we can to maximise what we've got.”

By way of encouragement for Holland, the Boat Race has been won by the lighter crew on five occasions in the past ten years. Oxford may have won by two lengths in 2005, when they had the heaviest crew on record, but two years earlier Cambridge weighed more than a stone a man more and yet lost by a foot.

Yesterday, Oxford weighed in at an average of 15st 6lb 11oz, excluding the cox, which was only two ounces a man lighter than the record. Toby Medaris, the Australian in the Oxford No2 seat, was the heaviest on either team, although his weight of 16st 2lb was more than a stone lighter than the record set by Thorsten Engelmann, of Cambridge, last year.

Cambridge weighed in at 14st 8lb 12oz a man, with Rebecca Dowbiggin, the cox, weighing 10lb less than Nick Brodie, her Oxford counterpart.

However, Holland drew comfort from the special nature of the Thames course from Putney to Mortlake, where the bends and sudden change in conditions make experience, strategy and luck more important than sheer strength. “The thing about the championship course is you get some headwind and some tailwind,” he said. “Traditionally, a heavier crew goes well into a headwind and less well into a tailwind, so each crew will find conditions to suit. Also, the bigger the crew, the more likely they are to sink.”

There has not been a sinking in the Boat Race since Cambridge went under 30 years ago and, despite the prospect of 25mph winds on Saturday, with gusts of up to 50mph, both coaches are happy that their crews can handle the conditions.

“We can expect some strong winds and some rough water and that's going to add an extra dimension,” Sean Bowden, the Oxford head coach, said. “It will be important tactically to be really astute and get yourself in a good position for any kind of rough water.

“I don't mind being the heavier crew. If we row well then having a bit of extra strength and leverage will help, but Cambridge have plenty of power, too.”

What may play into Oxford's hands is their decision to train on the Thames for the past week, while Cambridge have been spending their practice time “in peace and quiet” on the Dee in Chester. “We've had some terrible days down here and been quite close to shipping water at times,” Bowden said. “We've had rough water at some time every day and we've chosen to go out in it at least once a day to get some practice. We're ready for anything. There's nothing like having rowed in really rough water to know how to deal with it.”

Making waves

Thorsten Engelmann, the Cambridge stroke last year, is the heaviest man to row in the Boat Race, at 17st 6lb (110.7kg).

This year's Oxford crew are only two ounces per man lighter than the heaviest crew, Oxford in 2005.

Crews: Cambridge: Bow: Colin Scott, 13st 8lb; Tim Perkins, 15st; Henry Pelly, 13st 13lb; Tobias Garnett, 14st 10lb; Peter Marsland, 16st; Tom Ramsley, 15st 11lb; Tom Edwards, 13st 11lb. Stroke: Shane O'Mara, 14st 3lb. Cox: Rebecca Dowbiggin, 7st 10lb.

Oxford: Bow: Jan Herzog, 14st 4lb; Toby Medaris, 16st 2lb; Ben Smith, 15st 6lb; Aaron Marcovy, 16st 1lb; Michael Wherley, 15st 8lb; Oliver Moore, 15st 13lb; Charles Cole, 15st 2lb. Stroke: William England, 15st 5lb. Cox: Nicholas Brodie, 8st 6lb.

Today's outings: Oxford, noon; Cambridge, 2.30pm.

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