Donald Legget, the grand old man of the Thames in his 41st year as an assistant coach of Cambridge, looked to the skies and the undulating water at Putney yesterday and muttered: “It feels like it did a couple of years ago - and also how it was in 1978.”

The omens were not good for Cambridge, then, in this afternoon's 154th Boat Race, sponsored by Xchanging. In 1978, the Light Blue boat sank off Barnes in choppy conditions, while in 2006 the race was neck and neck until Cambridge ran into what Duncan Holland, their head coach, describes as “a massive wall of water”, took lots of it onboard and lost by five lengths.

Fears of gusting winds and choppy waves this afternoon have forced bookmakers to slash the odds offered on a sinking, but the design of modern boats, as well as the use of on-board pumps, makes it unlikely. However, Sean Bowden, the Oxford head coach, came off the water after a final training session last night and said: “It depends what you mean by sink. The boats will take on a lot of water and it may be round the rowers' waists, but we're pretty good at getting rid of it.”

There have been only six sinkings - three each - in the 179-year history of the race, the last 30 years ago, but the odds of 50-1 that were widely available on either boat sinking two weeks ago were halved yesterday morning and then to 16-1 in the afternoon by cautious bookmakers.

Rupert Adams, of William Hill, said that the bookmaker had seen lots of small bets on a sinking, which caused the cut. “The weather forecast is vile,” he added, although, oddly, William Hill were also offering a ridiculous 10-1 on the race record being beaten.

The Met Office forecast an overcast race with outbreaks of rain. “It will be breezy, with a southwesterly wind of 20mph, which will make the Thames rather choppy,” a spokesman said.

Picking a winner is always difficult but the favourites' tag belongs to the Dark Blues, especially after Cambridge lost their first-choice stroke, Shane O'Mara, to illness on Wednesday. Oxford are the heavier and more experienced crew, which could prove the difference in a close race. As Holland pointed out, though, heavier crews sink more easily.

Furthermore, if there is a tailwind from the south at the start, it would benefit the lighter crew, who ended a brief outing yesterday with a start and minute's sprint. “We're only going to do it once, so nail it,” Holland shouted from the coach's boat. The result, albeit splashy, looked impressive.

Oxford are the older crew by more than a year per rower, but that is helped by the presence of Mike Wherley, 36, in the No 5 seat and Jan Herzog, 33, the bow, who become the oldest and second-oldest men to row in the Boat Race. The oldest competitor remains Andrew Probert, who was 38 when he coxed Cambridge in 1992.

So much of the destiny of this race could come down to the guile of the two coxes. Both competed last year, with Rebecca Dowbiggin guiding Cambridge home first. “She steers beautifully, knows the river well and she's very calm,” Holland said.

Nick Brodie, the Oxford cox, is also their president this year, which is something of a rarity. He is a man on a revenge mission, having also coxed losing Isis boats in 2005 and 2006, and spoke with passion about creating a winning spirit in his crew.

“We are a quiet crew, who like to analyse everything and make sure we cover every angle,” he said. “We're all great buddies. I feel a lot closer to this year's boat than in previous years.”

To start the bonding, he laid on a black-tie dinner for the squad at Magdalen College in September. “It was a way of recreating the team spirit of 20-30 years ago,” he said. “I called it the Oxford Podium, as on Saturday evening we want both the Blue boat and Isis on the winners' podium.”

If Oxford win, William Hill said they face their “worst ever result in the Boat Race”, with possible losses of £500,000 after the bookmakers offered 5-6 on Cambridge at the start of the week.

Eight not so great

Things do not always go well when the year ends in an eight . . .

1858 Steamer clips Oxford boat, damaging president’s rowlock. Cambridge later hit a barge but go on to win easily.

1868 Cambridge’s preparations disturbed by death of the Hon James Gordon, who rowed the previous year and accidentally shot himself while cleaning his rifle.

1888 Hector McLean, the Oxford president, dies of typhoid fever.

1908 Oxford president suffers from jaundice shortly before the race; his crew lose close race.

1978 Cambridge sink just off Barnes.

But it could turn out like this . . .

1948 In perfect conditions, Cambridge fight back from catching a crab to win by five lengths, shattering race record by 13 seconds, and represent Great Britain in that summer’s Olympics, winning silver.

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