NICKY HAYDEN can become the first man to dethrone Valentino Rossi for six years this weekend, but he arrived in Portugal with fate, momentum and even his team seemingly against him.

While Rossi, a master of mind games, championed the motivation and concentration of his crew, his American rival would have been stunned to hear Honda’s top brass say that they cannot solve his clutch problem.

An unguarded remark by Satoru Horiike, the Honda Racing Club managing director, suggests that Hayden may be clutching at straws in Estoril as Rossi prepares for his most dramatic tilt at the MotoGP title yet. Having trailed Hayden by 51 points four races ago, the lead is down to 12 and Rossi is preying on fraying nerves.

“Of course we know we could have won more races if we’d been like this earlier in the season,” the Italian said, underscoring the belief that Yamaha are in the ascendancy, whereas Hayden’s Repsol Honda team are limping towards the line.

“We can’t fix it,” Horiike said of Hayden’s clutch after a test in Japan. The mechanics have been working round the clock to come up with a solution, but another bad start would hand the initiative to Rossi. Hayden most recently won on home turf at Laguna Seca but since then he has been fourth, ninth and fifth twice. Rossi has not been off the podium in that time.

“Since Brno [in the Czech Republic in August], when we finally understood what we needed to do to make our bike work at 100 per cent, we’ve been very strong everywhere,” Rossi said. “We’re as strong as our rivals now and when we’re at the maximum we’re always going to be fighting at the front. Everyone involved has helped bring us back to this level. The team ’s level of motivation and concentration is the best in the paddock. It’s incredible.”

Rossi publicly dismissed his prospects of winning a sixth successive title after a difficult beginning to the season in which he failed to finish in China, France and the United States. However, no one is better in a crisis and Hayden hardly seemed in an upbeat mood as he looked ahead to Sunday’s showdown.

“It’s probably the track on the whole calendar that I’ve got the least experience at,” he said. “I missed one year there because of my knee and collarbone, last year was a wet race and I struggled a lot and I’ve never tested here.”

Hayden did claim that the team had made progress in testing at Motegi, but Horiike’s remark may be the more telling. Although Hayden and Rossi seem sure to decide the outcome of an enthralling season, three other riders, Marco Melandri, Loris Cap-irossi and Dani Pedrosa, have mathematical chances of winning the title.

Ilmor, the Northamptonshire-based company, launches its 800cc bike in Estoril today. Garry McCoy, the Australian rider, will ride the bike in the final two races of the season. Ilmor has been hugely successful in NASCAR and Formula One, in which it won the World Championship with McLaren in 1998 and 1999.

How they stand

1, N Hayden (US, Repsol Honda) 236 (2 race wins)

2, V Rossi (It, Camel Yamaha) 224 (5)

3, M Melandri (It, Fortuna Honda) 209 (3)

4, L Capirossi (It, Ducati Marlboro) 205 (3)

5, D Pedrosa (Sp, Repsol Honda) 202 (2)

Races left

Sixteenth round (Estoril, Portugal) Sunday

Seventeenth round (Valencia, Spain) Oct 29

Explore More Sport

• Athletics

• Boxing

• Cycling

• Sailing

• US Sport