Barring a crash, further revelations or the unlikely event of a dramatic loss of form, it seems that Michael Rasmussen will win this year’s Tour de France in Paris next Sunday.

The Dane took control of his destiny over this weekend, shocking those who thought he would collapse in yesterday’s time trial in Albi by finishing 11th and then increasing his overall lead in this afternoon’s summit finish at Plateau de Beille in the remote peaks of the Ariege.

Only Alberto Contador, Discovery Channel’s young revelation, winner last March of Paris-Nice, was able to stay with Rasmussen on the steepest gradients to Plateau de Beille, finally outsprinting the race leader to claim his first stage win.

But as things stand Rasmussen’s lead over the Spaniard — currently 2min 23sec — will see him through the final time trial next Saturday.

Rasmussen is refusing to count his chickens however. “Discovery Channel still have two cards to play,” he said. “Levi Leipheimer is still close in the classification but for the moment Contador is the biggest rival. We still have over 400km of riding in the Pyrenees, so it’s not over until we’re in Paris, but I guess everybody knows that.”

In yesterday’s 54km time trial in Albi, Contador placed 7th, 37 seconds ahead of his Danish rival. Next Saturday’s time trial from Cognac to Angouleme is only a kilometre and a half longer, which looks unlikely to offer the Spaniard the chance to make up his deficit.

For the moment, Rasmussen is flying high, lording it over the peloton, a curiously aloof maillot jaune, said to be a stranger to his team-mates, as much as to the media. Certainly his nervous and staccato press conferences are icily uncharismatic, especially when he insists each evening that he will “only take questions about the race.”

This tactic is not really working, although the Dane is becoming increasingly expert at dodging the doping bullets. “I am trying to stay focused on the cycling, and I have one more week of hard competition," he said. "If I have to deal with everything else, I’ll go crazy.”