After the debacle with Oracle, nobody is prepared to make predictions about the outcome of the Louis Vuitton Cup, which reaches its climax in Valencia this week. The best-of-nine-race final between Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand was not exactly the one expected even a month ago, when the big budget BMW Oracle squad were strong favourites not just to challenge Alinghi for the 32nd America’s Cup, but to take the Auld Mug back to America for the first time in 15 years.

The American team’s 5-1 defeat by Luna Rossa was an embarrassment to the most lavishly funded team in the history of the cup, sending shock-waves through all the bases on the waterfront in Valencia. Team New Zealand sensed the shift in mood a week ago as Desafio Espanol, who had already achieved their twin ambitions of reaching the semi-finals and winning a race there, outstarted and outsailed their more experienced rivals to record a win memorably celebrated by the flotilla of support boats outside the harbour. Remember that as the leaders of the round-robin series, New Zealand were able to choose their semi-final opponents.

Predictably, the New Zealanders, helmed by Dean Barker, ended the fun two days later, but the conclusion from the two semi-finals was that differences can be measured more in terms of human weakness than technological strength.

Since the first “unveiling day”, when teams had to reveal their outboard secrets to the press, the public and their rivals, there has been little evidence of fundamental change in the basic design of the America’s Cup boat. Events on the water, which have been compelling and unpredictable - Team China recorded their only victory of the round-robin series over BMW Oracle, for goodness sake - in equal measure, have proved that the margins on the drawing board have narrowed. The superb exhibition of seamanship by Luna Rossa over the past 10 days confirmed the shift in thinking. “It’s down to good old-fashioned sailing,” says Eddie Warden Owen, the British coach of the Desafio team. “Lost races aren’t attributable to poor boat speed or lack of sailing ability. It’s not a technological race any more. It’s down to who dominates at the start and who reads the wind the best.”

On the evidence of the semi-finals, both of those elements will favour Luna Rossa. James Spithill, the young Australian at the helm of the former Prada team, so comprehensively outmanoeuvred and outpsyched Chris Dickson, his opposite number on BMW Oracle, that the New Zealander, one of the most experienced match-racers in the world, was removed from the boat for the final race. Depending on whom you believe, he resigned or was dismissed by owner Larry Ellison a few days after the defeat.

Nobody was more surprised by the collapse than Warden Owen. “The ease of the Italians’ victory surprised me, for sure, as did the ease with which James Spithill dominated Dickson,” he says. “Whenever I’ve watched videos of the start, I’ve always watched Chris. He was the model of consistency and relaxation. But he completely lost the feeling for it and all sense of relaxation. Spithill never gave him room to breathe throughout the semi-final and the way he drew him into two penalties in that crucial race, that was a fantastic job. If Spithill can do the same to Dean Barker in the final, it could be the deciding factor.”

Spithill’s reputation, already formidable coming into the regatta, has soared. Not only did he and Torben Grael, the navigator, combine almost faultlessly on the water, they seemed to instill confidence in the crew. Sail changes were quick and slick, lines of communication were strong and the mass of information fed into the ears of helmsman and navigator interpreted with the minimum of fuss. The pressure of mounting failure reduced Dickson to inertia.

It was part of Warden Owen’s task as technical consultant to boost the confidence of Karol Jablonski, the least experienced of the four helmsman in the semi-finals. “I told him to relax and enjoy it,” says Warden Owen. “All credit to Karol, he delivered. The whole team was more assertive because there was no pressure on them. I’d say of the seven starts against the New Zealanders, we won five. It comes down to psychology and pressure. How confident are you in yourself, your numbers and in your teammates?”

With Ben Ainslie waiting in the wings as the reserve helmsman, Barker is under pressure from inside his own team, let alone from the aggressive young Queenslander at the helm of Luna Rossa. How he copes with the starts will be critical to the outcome, but Luna Rossa can expect tighter and more tactical match-racing than against BMW Oracle.

“The Kiwis did a good job of keeping close to us, never giving us any room to breathe,” says Warden Owen. “They’ll try to do the same to the Italians. They won’t give them the opportunity to split. If Luna Rossa goes right, the Kiwis will go right. There won’t be the big distances between the boats as there were in the Oracle series.”

The early departure of BMW Oracle has tilted the balance of seaborne power back in favour of Europe. Two of the three remaining teams — Luna Ross and Alinghi — are based in Europe. Even if Team New Zealand took the America’s Cup back to its second spiritual home, there is no guarantee that the next cup in two or four years would be held in Auckland. Dubai is one possible venue, but it is one of the quirks of the oldest trophy in international sport that the rules for the next challenge will not be finalised until the end of this regatta in early July.

Whether Ellison will care to invest more of his billions in another campaign is an open question. The America’s Cup needs a strong US challenge; whatever their internal failings, BMW Oracle set a benchmark for technological sophistication as well as financial expenditure, for the first time fusing the expertise of boat and Formula One car designers.

It didn’t work this time; it might next time. The good news is that, heartened by their success, the Spanish Desafio team are ready for another challenge and Team China are committed to further investment. The European challenge will be strengthened by the launch of Team Origin, the first fully funded British campaign for two decades.

A recent economic report stated that the average set-up costs for the 12 teams of this America’s Cup averaged $100m, with total investment breaking the $1 billion mark for the first time. Spin-offs for host cities of the next cup ranged from $1.75 billion for Auckland, $10 billion for Dubai and $3.75 billion for Genoa, Italy.

More relevant statistics for the outcome of the Louis Vuitton Cup were provided by Warden Owen. “If you can sail the boat to 98% of its potential 95% of the time, those are good numbers,” he says.