WHEN Lord Coe took over as chairman of London’s Olympic bid on May 19 last year, the situation was as dispiriting as if he had just fallen on the second lap of one of his Olympic 1,500 metres finals. London had been sharply criticised by the IOC after submitting its applicant file. The railways of the capital were described as “often obsolete” and the working party said that not enough of the proposed venues were close enough to the Olympic village in Stratford.
The decision by Barbara Cassani to stand down as leader of the bid that day was wise and unselfish. It was necessary to have someone of Coe’s stature in the Olympic movement to persuade members that London should be chosen.
To almost all of the IOC’s present membership of 120, Coe is instantly recognisable, something that cannot be said of Cassani or, indeed, of any of the other bid leaders of the four shortlisted cities — Paris, Madrid, Moscow and New York. The four are either sports administrators or former government officials, not double Olympic champions in athletics.
However, hardly had the London bid team — which now numbers about 100 employees — recovered its poise when it suffered another stumble. The BBC Panorama investigation into how IOC voting could still be rigged may have been enterprising journalism, but it scarcely did the London bid any good.
In the Hilton Hotel in Athens last August, London’s supporters had to emphasise time and again to IOC members that not only was the BBC programme nothing to do with the bid, which the documentary had made clear, but that such investigation was common in the British media. Many IOC members could not comprehend how the BBC could, on the one hand, be a longstanding broadcast partner and, on the other, conduct such an investigation, using undercover methods.
A good number of IOC members came to understand the situation during the Athens Games and there is no question that London emerged stronger than it had started. This was helped by the presence of so many spectators from Britain, demonstrating their enthusiasm for the Olympics. And this momentum has continued.
The recovery has been confirmed by evidence gathered at the European Olympic Committee’s meeting in Dubrovnik, and at sports conventions in Rome and Dubai, as well as the reunions of the Olympic Committees of Asia in Doha. The details in the candidate file on November 19 also clarified the transport arrangements and moved more of the events closer to the Olympic village.
London is now back on the shoulder of Paris, which remains the favourite. Paris has chosen to be as low-key as possible, believing, with some justification, that it will win, provided that it does not make any mistakes.
London will, therefore, have to be more aggressive in the months ahead. At events this year, such as the Paralympic World Cup in Manchester, the meetings of the Oceanic and African National Olympic Committees and Sport Accord in Berlin, the team will have to persuade enough of the IOC members of London’s case to gain the necessary majority.
London has one distinct advantage. Unlike in 1986, when Birmingham was a candidate for the Games, and the two subsequent attempts of Manchester to host the Games of 1996 and 2000, there is no Commonwealth opposition. The triumphant staging of the 2002 Commonwealth Games in Manchester should mean that a majority of the 22 IOC members from Commonwealth countries will vote for London, although the three UK members — the Princess Royal, Craig Reedie and Philip Craven — are barred from the ballot as long as London remains in contention.
To get a clear majority, London will have to pull in a large number of the European members, which are clearly going to be split among the four contending cities from the Continent. There are 54 European members, but these also include those representatives of the candidate cities, plus Jacques Rogge, of Belgium, who as IOC president, does not have a vote.
The belief at the moment is that Moscow is likely to go out in the first round of voting, then New York, leaving Paris, London and Madrid. Sources in Madrid believe that Paris could be vulnerable at this stage because the Spanish capital thinks that it will still be able to rely on the South American and Latin vote, while London should pick up most of the New York supporters, including the three American members, who will then become eligible for the ballot.
However, this scenario is unlikely because the French should have secured enough votes from Europe and their former colonies to make it through to the last round. At this stage, the final two is expected to be Paris and London.
As an athlete, Coe was always renowned for his determination and ability to sprint for the line. Another such big finish may not be beyond him on July 6.
RIVALS ON THE RUN-IN
MADRID
Feliciano Mayoral, 49
Represented Spain in volleyball and was president of the Spanish volleyball federation from 1984 to 1987. He has since been assigned various roles, including being on the board of the organising committee for the 1992 Barcelona Olympics and the executive board of the World Anti-Doping Agency.
MOSCOW
Valery Shantsev, 58
The first deputy mayor of Moscow graduated from the Moscow Institute for Radio Technology, Electronics and Automation and held managerial positions with the Saljut radio factory in the Russian capital. He is head of the Commission for Economic Policy and Development of Moscow.
NEW YORK
Dan Doctoroff, 46
The deputy mayor of New York, who was founder of the bid in 1994, graduated from Harvard and the University of Chicago Law School, but then went into investment banking at Lehman Brothers and later Oak Hill Capital Partners, an investment group founded by Robert Bass, the Texan billionaire.
PARIS
Philippe Baudillon, 48
A former diplomat who specialised in Middle East and African affairs and who, for a time, served at the United Nations in New York, was involved in the Paris bid for the 1992 Olympics. He is a former Canal France International chief executive officer. He advised on the location of the Stade de France in Paris.
PICKING A WINNER
THE procedure to decide which city will be awarded the Olympic Games is simple. There is a secret poll among members of the IOC on the five rival cities. After each round of the ballot, the city with the fewest votes drops out. The ballot continues until one candidate gets an absolute majority. In 2001, this occurred, unusually, as early as the first round, when Beijing secured a majority to get the 2008 Summer Games. At present, there are 120 IOC members. However, Jacques Rogge, the IOC president, does not vote and neither do members from countries that are candidates in the contest until their own cities have been eliminated.
