HE IS an imposing physical specimen, bred in the purple, a group one winner to boot and a warm favourite for the 2,000 Guineas. Yet George Washington must buck one almighty trend if he is to prevail at Newmarket next spring. No winner of the Phoenix Stakes, annexed so impressively by George Washington on Sunday, has trodden the path for at least a quarter of a century.

This is no quirk of fate. While there are lies and damned lies, this statistic is rooted in logic. The Phoenix Stakes is run over six furlongs in August, by which time the majority of classic aspirants have left that distance behind. The Phoenix is thus a haven for precocious juveniles, many of which fail to train on.

As much is telegraphed by the past five winners. Between them, Damson, One Cool Cat, Spartacus, Johannesburg and Minardi could muster but one solitary victory in their sophomore seasons. Yet bookmakers implore us to perceive George Washington in a presidential light. No thank you. Or at least, not at this stage.

Those fretting over missing the ante-post boat should be glad that it has long since left the port. Most likely for the Bermuda Triangle. On its decks are the high hopes of Aidan O’Brien, who trains the colt, and Kieren Fallon, whose post-race eulogies were as wind to the bookmakers’ sails. Here’s a horse they can lay for months with precious little risk of having to leap overboard.

George Washington has always been the apple of the Ballydoyle team’s collective eye. He showed rare prowess from the day he first broke from a canter. No surprise there: at 1,150,000 guineas, he was the most expensive yearling purchase in Europe last year. Nor is it any surprise that George Washington appeared to take a big step forward at the Curragh on Sunday.

Beaten on his debut at Newmarket, then eased to victory in a maiden, he looked no more than useful when fending off Amigoni, his stablemate, in June. The impression was fortified when Amigoni recently cut little ice in the Richmond Stakes. However, these bare bones give a false impression of George Washington. Fallon has worked persistently to educate the headstrong colt. He has produced him through gaps to win his races, always handling him him with overt tenderness. The benefits are now obvious.

Yet exception must be taken to the idea that George Washington’s pedigree renders his speed a bonus. It is based on the deeds of his siblings, one of which, Grandera, was top class over middle distances. Another triumphed over ten furlongs; they are all out of a mare who herself won at 13 furlongs.

What such thinking fails to factor in, however, is that George Washington is by the remarkable Danehill. The adjective is merited, because Danehill, a top-class sprinter from fast roots, is responsible this term for Westerner and Distinction, respectively first and second in the Ascot Gold Cup.

As he has often done in the past, Danehill might easily have thrown a staying type from George Washinton’s dam. The fact that George Washington is so precocious is a pointer more indicative to the contrary than any theorising over his bloodlines. He is what he is: a fast, physically strong colt of the type regularly thrown by Danehill. Anyone looking beyond that is playing with fire.

We may yet see George Washington again this season. In which case, a more reasoned assessment can be made. Until then, it is safe to say that George Washington will have to be something of a freak to progress from an eight-length, group one score at six furlongs to winning a one-mile classic at three.

It’s not impossible. But we know from bitter experience that such horses don’t come along with the frequency intimated by bookmaker quotes of 4-1. A more likely scenario is that George Washington is ready-made as he stands today. Despite the myriad theories alluding to further improvement over time and distance, we should heed lessons from the past.

Besides, those seduced by George Washington should consider the fate of one who ran just 30 minutes after the colt romped to victory on Sunday. A filly bred to stay at least a mile, one for whom classic aspirations were held, one who toyed with Oratorio in the Phoenix Stakes last season. Yet poor Damson could finish only ninth when dropped back to six furlongs. She has plainly failed to train on.