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Change came after a review by the Starting Price Regulatory Commission (SPRC), chaired by Lord Donoghue and prompted by how greatly the betting landscape had changed in the five years since the system was last examined. During this period, punters had never had it so good but now the pendulum is again on the turn.
Some basics. Odds are the theoretical chance of a horse winning a race. The starting price (SP) factors in a profit on top and is used by bookmakers to settle their bets. It is compiled using the prices at the “off” on the boards of a proportion of on-course bookmakers. To manage their liabilities, off-course bookmakers pump money into the on-course market to limit the SP.
Betting exchanges altered this dynamic. Off-course bookmakers had to spend more to affect prices because the on-course market trades on exchanges, primarily Betfair. On-course bookmakers in effect broker for their clients on the track with Betfair customers online. This moves the “true” odds and the SP closer together, impairing off-course profits. In September 2000, the SP profit margin per runner was 2.07. Six years later, it was 1.45 — a movement of 30 per cent in favour of punters.
The change begun at the start of the month is intended by the SPRC to make the system “more robust and reflective of the actual course market”. A larger sample of on-course bookmakers is used and, to achieve this at quieter meetings, bookmakers betting each-way are included. These seeming subtleties will impact negatively on punters. Results at Cheltenham’s Open meeting indicate they already have.
The increased sample size was born of concern about vulnerability at quiet meetings, but isn’t the new calculation more likely to suppress the SP at larger meetings? Including each-way bookmakers is unsatisfactory because many offering this facility stifle their prices. This means off-course win bets are settled at an SP unduly influenced by lower prices.
There is an even greater underlying problem. The SPRC lacks the money and authority to implement and enforce total computerisation. The result is an anachronistic system and failure to start afresh in a brave new betting world. It produces an SP reflecting only the on-course market, yet one propped up by exchanges. It is an awkward half-embrace.
It perpetuates a system predicated on appearance rather than actuality. An on-course bookmaker may be showing 8-1 at the off but how much money would he actually lay at that price? It would be better to use the data from bets struck, on-course and online, over a designated period of time. A transaction-based system would be transparent, auditable and immune from human error — or worse, corruption.
Such a system is the future. It is inevitable. It is sensible. Yes, it would advertise the perks of Betfair, but these already exist. The only difference would be more people knowing it. To compete, bookmakers could add an advertised margin to the truer SP and offer auxiliary benefits, like mortgage lenders operating around the base rate for borrowing.
When researching this article, I was amazed to find the Big Three bookmakers and their trade association uncertain whether the new system had started. After an hour, Ladbrokes confirmed that it had. Their indifference to such a beneficial change unnerved me. Perhaps they worry the competition authorities would take a dim view of closely monitoring the SP mechanism. Or maybe they, too, see this as a transitory stage. I doubt we have the same endgame in mind.
Second, half-hour gaps between some races were insufficient. Racegoers pay to see horses in the parade ring as well as in the race. It is critical to the narrative of the day and to punting. At the weekend, the bell was sounding for jockeys to mount and leave the parade ring before many of their horses had even entered it.
DESSIE WAS ONE IN A MILLION
DESERT ORCHID was special for many reasons. He was the best chaser in my lifetime. In the Racing Post Chase and Irish Grand National, he produced two awesome weight-carrying performances. He mixed it with the best at a variety of distances. He raced, and won, often. He was a horse that purists and casual fans could agree about. His racing career and long, happy retirement was this sport’s most convincing advertisement. Some scorn those who get soppy about horses. I don’t care. This was greatness passing.
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