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Last year's Breeders' Cup expansion to a two-day meeting always promised a greater return for Europe's horses, and so it proved when they returned with five victories. To raise the bar again this time, the raiders must contrive an extra triumph from the same number of runners.
A healthy 31 horses were yesterday nominated for the 14-race event, which gets under way at Santa Anita racetrack, in California, tomorrow week. Even though ten of them have been doubly entered, Europe will be represented in every race except the Juvenile Fillies'.
The squad is long on promise for racing's equivalent to the Ryder Cup. And if British bookmakers know their American onions, Europe might well share the laurels this year. Horses from this side of the pond are favoured in eight of the races, yet realism intrudes on closer inspection.
For instance, Ballydoyle's Rip Van Winkle is 6-4 for the Classic, America's autumnal signature race, with Zenyatta, the local heroine, who is unbeaten after 13 races, rated a 6-1 chance by some firms. When that detail was relayed to official American handicappers during a transatlantic conference call yesterday, their surprise was palpable.
Perhaps the Americans do not fully appreciate how favourable is the synthetic Santa Anita surface to European ambition. Last year's memorable haul was seized from the same venue, where the traditional dirt track was controversially ripped out.
In consequence, Rachel Alexandra, America's stellar three-year-old filly, misses the party this time. Yet it still requires the optimism of Clive Brittain to forecast a similar harvest even if forecast temperatures in the mid-80s - some 10 degrees below the seasonal norm - further abets the European cause.
Aidan O'Brien summed it up succinctly when he noted from Ireland yesterday: “Our three-year-olds have had a long season. Rip Van Winkle has suffered plenty of setbacks and has had some hard races. But there are now so many big races around the world that you want to compete in as many of them as you can.”
The O'Brien team is typically strong on paper in its bid to make a winner's circle it failed to visit last year. Mastercraftsman and Viscount Nelson also dominate betting on their respective races, the Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf, while Alfred Nobel and Beethoven (Juvenile), Man Of Iron (Marathon) and Lillie Langtry (Juvenile Fillies' Turf) also feature prominently.
Britain's fortunes rest largely with Henry Cecil and Sir Michael Stoute, whose Conduit and Spanish Moon dominate the Turf. Sir Michael can also entertain Zacinto's prospects in the Mile, for which France's Goldikova is hot favourite. Cecil's trio are headed by Midday, who disputes favouritism for the Filly & Mare Turf.
Godolphin has the Marathon favourite in Mastery, yet Simon Crisford, racing manager for the stable, feels its strength rests with horses from Godolphin's American barn. This unusual state of affairs extends to the emergence of Ahmed Ajtebi, the Dubaian-born understudy to Frankie Dettori who has his first Breeders' Cup rides on Godolphin's Buzzword and Gladiatorus. Frankie may be going to Hollywood but he has little to sing about.
He may not be alone despite Europe's evident strength. The Breeders' Cup has a habit of playing untrue to form. It was at Santa Anita 23 years ago that Dancing Brave sunk without trace. And few could have foreseen the wins of Ouija Board and Wilko from a severely depleted European squad at Churchill Downs in 2004.
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