If international matches are won by attention to detail, Wales may have gained an edge when Warren Gatland, the head coach, said he had switched his side's changing-room with that of Scotland's for today's match at the Millennium Stadium. Officially it is because the ambience is better. The reality is that in the old changing-room Gatland could not have all his players in his eye-line as he spoke; some would be behind pillars.

Wales would do well to approach this match with caution. Many signs point to a home victory - Wales's away win over England last Saturday and Scotland's home defeat by France on Sunday being two of them. The way Gatland and Shaun Edwards, the defence coach, have galvanised the Wales squad is another. But there are a number of factors that may make it more of a close-run thing than it may seem. The first is Wales's discomfort in the role of favourites. Remember them losing to Fiji in the pool stage in the World Cup last year? Although Wales were by no means expected to beat England, it still took a remarkably bad passage of play by Wales for them to be frightened into playing better.

Then there is the less well-known factor of Scotland's preparation. Frank Hadden, the Scotland coach, revealed that eight of the team against France had not played for three weeks. “On balance, that was too many,” he said.

No such excuses this weekend. Scotland made only two changes for this match, one of them enforced, and then added a third yesterday morning when Simon Webster withdrew because he had aggravated a hamstring in training. As a result and for his 83rd appearance, Chris Paterson is moved from full back, where he had come in for Rory Lamont, to the left wing. Hugo Southwell is promoted from the bench to start at full back, while Simon Danielli takes his place among the replacements.

Yet Wales do seem to have more firepower in the backs, with most players capable of deceptive running and making line breaks. If Gavin Henson continues the form he showed last weekend and James Hook again demonstrates the same all-round generalship as he did then, Scotland could be in for a trying afternoon. Wales's forward unit, though weakened at the lineout by the absence of Alun-Wyn Jones, is underrated.

Kilts were sighted in St Mary Street, Cardiff, yesterday afternoon and daffodils were out in Sophia Gardens. If such balmy conditions remain today, all is set for a spectacular afternoon. It should be comfortable for Wales, but who can tell with the Scottish - or the Welsh, for that matter.

How they line up at the Millennium Stadium

Wales: L Byrne (Ospreys); J Roberts (Cardiff Blues), T Shanklin (Cardiff Blues), G Henson (Ospreys), S Williams (Ospreys); J Hook (Ospreys), M Phillips (Ospreys); D Jones (Ospreys), H Bennett (Ospreys), A R Jones (Ospreys), I Gough (Ospreys), I Evans (Ospreys), J Thomas (Ospreys), M Williams (Cardiff Blues), R Jones (Ospreys, captain). Replacements: M Rees (Llanelli Scarlets), G Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), D Jones (Cardiff Blues), G Delve (Gloucester), D Peel (Llanelli Scarlets), S Jones (Llanelli Scarlets), S Parker (Ospreys).

Scotland: H Southwell (Edinburgh); N Walker (Ospreys), N De Luca (Edinburgh), A Henderson (Glasgow), C Paterson (Gloucester); D Parks (Glasgow), M Blair (Edinburgh); A Jacobsen (Edinburgh), R Ford (Edinburgh), E Murray (Northampton), N Hines (Perpignan), J Hamilton (Leicester), J White (Sale Sharks, captain), K Brown (Glasgow), J Barclay (Glasgow). Replacements: F Thomson (Glasgow), G Kerr (Edinburgh), S MacLeod (Llanelli Scarlets), A Hogg (Edinburgh), C Cusiter (Perpignan), G Morrison (Glasgow), S Danielli (Ulster).

Referee: B Lawrence (New Zealand).

Television: Live on BBC One from 1pm and S4C from 1.25pm today (kick-off 2pm).