Sunday Times sports staff
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Stuart Barnes: An Irish win against Wales in the next round of Six Nations matches and punters who bet that there would be no Six Nations Grand Slam champions at the generous 8-11 offered before the start of the tournament can breathe a sigh of relief; and one week before Cheltenham to boot. From the perspective of a punter seeking early ammunition for the festival, it is almost too good to be true if the home side overturn Wales, the only unbeaten team in the tournament, securing the rupees with a round to go – but will they?
Wales are an improving team whose second-half performance against Italy impressively revealed the mediocrity of their opponents (and the limitations of England and Ireland’s narrow wins against the same opposition). The men in red played with a pace that stretched Italy’s limitations and exposed the frailties in their defence. Allied with a choice use of the bench, it was a strong effort and one that gives Wales real hopes in Dublin.
But beneath the stylishness there are flaws not far from the surface. The Italian pack caused problems and with Ireland’s tight unit as efficient as it has been at the scrum for years, the hosts could cause problems here. While Wales have been scoring a stack of tries, they have yet to be seriously tested by a smart attack.
The most impressive aspect of Ireland’s game was the clinical efficiency of their attacking game. Eoin Reddan is giving Ronan O’Gara more time because of the threat he himself poses with his running game and with the fly-half flourishing again there are clear signs that the fresh faces of Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble are merging into a dangerous offence alongside a slowly rejuvenating Brian O’Driscoll. If Eddie O’Sullivan sticks with Georden Murphy, Ireland have an even more formidable attacking look. Then there is Croke Park. Ireland have lost there so it is not mission impossible for Wales but still, this is tough.
Wales cannot be dismissed but this could be the game where Ireland really click. If that happens, Wales are going to be leaving Dublin with the championship but no Grand Slam to play for. I fancy Ireland by five in what could be a game that tops 50 points.
Lawrence Dallaglio: Wales could beat Ireland and keep the Grand Slam alive, but will they? Like you, I doubt it. Wales played some good stuff against Italy but the scoreline flattered them. I think you might just have overestimated them, Barnsey. They had it far from their own way until the Tom Shanklin turning point at the start of the second half.
Ireland, on the other hand, produced a much needed performance against Scotland. It seemed they rediscovered their missing spark. What with the likelihood of Paul O’Connell returning in some form or another, Ireland will pose more problems up front than Wales have endured for a while. Ireland will have taken plenty of confidence from the manner of the win against Scotland and with the incentive of the title still live bait, I fancy them.
It could be a reasonably high scoring match with a few tries for each of the teams, both sides may even make the 20s but this one is Ireland’s by around to 6-10 points. It will be interesting to see the Welsh line up. I would go for Dwayne Peel and James Hook at half-back because Hook is the future of the game in Wales - he is that good - while Peel’s speed of pass and quick wits are vital. Mike Phillips’ strength suits Wales in the final 20 minutes but even with the strong Welsh bench, I reckon Croke Park, with O’Connell back to take some of the pressure off Brian O’Driscoll is a winning combination for Ireland.
SB: On the face of it, England should have a simpler job in Edinburgh. Having beaten France away and seen Scotland dispatched in Dublin, it appears a form book formality but there are reasons for caution. Scotland may not have scored more than the single try in three games but England have only just been more creative and have needed a lot of possession to put opponents away.
Scotland has a decent pack, as they showed last weekend, and have the capacity to rise to the challenge of their old enemy. If Nathan Hines can create mayhem at the lineout and Chris Paterson shade the kicking battle with Jonny Wilkinson this could be much closer than many think. Two years ago Scotland beat an England team that monopolised possession; in this instance, England might not win as much ball in all facets of play and with that in mind it might be judicious to take Scotland with a start. The bookmaker’s powder is dry right now but it would be no great surprise to see England pushed all the way. There is the possibility of the World Cup runners-up clicking behind the scrum but as that has not occurred for over a year, a tempered bet on Scotland seems the sensible option. For those of more bullish nature, a home win is not out of the question, despite Scotland’s blunt attacking problems. If England wins this one by more than single figures I would be mildly surprised; one to watch, not bet on.
LD: I am not so sure about that. England look well set for a third championship win. Given the form going into Paris, the result was everything and this was a fine result indeed, built on those traditional cornerstones of English rugby, pride, passion, courage and bravery. I saw that French team sheet and thought England could take them on in the area where we had the most experience and match them at least, in and around the scrum. The comprehensive nature of the victory should now be something of a reference point, especially for a few of the younger members of the team. Let me tell you, victory in Paris is a significant notch for an Englishman.
It is not all roses, however. There remain major problems with the attacking game. I am not sure England have moved on an inch in this department but at least such problems are easier to address from a winning foundation; that is why Paris was so important. Lesley Vainokolo always drew two or three players into contact; England must use him more and test Scotland’s defence. Brian advocates width but he is the sort of wing you want popping up off the blindside wing and the fly-half’s shoulders. Apart from the attack the lineout is an area in need of address. England will not always win with defence.
But they will against Scotland. The home side will be pragmatic and hope to turn the match into a kicking duel as they are struggling even more than England to create. Yet raw emotion can and has been known to take Scotland a long way when they see white shirts in Edinburgh. That is why I do not expect England to cut loose. They will build a lead and with a similar set piece and Andrew Sheridan driving off it, well, it is hard to see a team capable of producing that Paris performance slipping up. Anything other than a decent win – by 10 points – will be a backwards step.
Stuart Barnes and Lawrence Dallaglio are Betfair Rugby Ambassadors
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Anthony J, Alton, England wrote:
"England look well set for a third championship win". Before Lawrence Dallaglio makes such statement he should at lest study the 6N points table. The chamionship is outside England control, even if they win both thier remaining games, Scotland and Ireland they are dependant upon:
Well, if England do beat Scotland....it WILL be their THIRD CHAMPIONSHIP WIN as LD says.
Italy win
France win
Scotland win
So perhaps you ought to read and digest someones comments thoroughly before making such statements.
jovialjim, Hanworth, Middx
"England look well set for a third championship win". Before Lawrence Dallaglio makes such statement he should at lest study the 6N points table. The chamionship is outside England control, even if they win both thier remaining games, Scotland and Ireland they are dependant upon:
Wales, must loose both thier remaining games, Ireland and France
France, must loose one of their remaining games, Italy and Wales
Ireland, must loose one of thier remaining games, Wales and England.
The games that will decide the 6N are, Ireland v Wales and then Wales v France, which makes France firm favourities
What Lawrence Dallaglio should have said, England at best are a long odds outside bet
Anthony J, Alton, England
Interesting comment from Mr Dallaglio.
"Wales played some good stuff against Italy but the scoreline flattered them. I think you might just have overestimated them, Barnsey. They had it far from their own way until the Tom Shanklin turning point at the start of the second half.
Ireland, on the other hand, produced a much needed performance against Scotland"
If I may add some much needed perspective to that comment, Wales match Italy up front, led through possession and territory and clearly led on the scoreboard (where it matters most) and it's "flattering". Yet an Ireland side virtually out of possession in the first half against Scotland are producing a "performance"? Interesting insights into the congested world of lazy punditry.
I'm not commenting on the result, it's still too close to call without seeing the teams yet, but Barnes is at least trying to analyse some rugby here.
So, LD, it's an opinion I suppose; but it's no analysis.
J Williams, Aylesbury, UK
Dave - dynamicism - nice word. Did you just make that up?
Chris, London,
Wales are a good side, but completely over-estimated in my view. They were destroyed by England in the first half of game 1, Scotland also pushed them in the first half of game 2. To Wales' credit they turned both games around, but they won't enjoy that luxury in Dublin. Ireland have the right mix of a kicking or running game, more dynamicism up front than before and more pace in the backs. Ireland by at least 10 points. If the lineout holds up!
Dave, Dublin,
Wales, should not be underestimated this year.REMEMBER 2005 ,only this time they are even better.It's a win and nothing less will be achieved by this team of 2008. Ireland you have been warned!
LOU, SOUTHAMPTON, U.K.