The fate of Fiji and Wales will be determined in a pretty stadium in the north of the city here this afternoon. No more ifs and buts. It may be a pool match, but this is a knockout. The winners advance to the World Cup quarterfinals and a probable clash with South Africa in Marseilles next weekend; the losers go home.

Should it be Wales, a lukewarm welcome will await them in Cardiff and it may mark the end of Gareth Jenkins’s 17-month tenure as coach.

The Stade de la Beaujoire is architecturally pleasing, set in a park and capable of holding 38,500. Drenched with sunlight last Saturday, it rocked with enthusiasm when England beat Samoa there and it will resound to patriotism and Welsh songs this afternoon. One Wales supporter has been here for six weeks. Nothing like establishing an early bridgehead.

Many others were thronging the streets when the Wales players went sightseeing on Thursday. “There were a lot of head-to-toe Welsh flags,” Dwayne Peel, the scrum half, said.

Wales have yet to lose to Fiji in six matches, although, in their most recent meeting in Cardiff two years ago, they won by only one point, with a dropped goal in the final minutes. Today’s game is expected to follow a pattern that depends on Fiji’s approach. “Will we be sleeping under a coconut tree or rowing the boat?” Nicky Little, the Fiji fly half, said.

Wales will want to control the scrums and lineouts and kick more accurately than they did against Australia a fortnight ago. They will want also to launch their backs at the Fijians, but on their terms and in their time, rather as they did against a tiring Japan team last Thursday, when they scored seven tries after half-time.

This is one reason why the technical skills of Peel are preferred at scrum half to the more aggressive style of Michael Phillips. If Alun-Wyn Jones and Ian Evans, the locks, control the lineout and Peel throws out one quick pass after another, Wales should prosper and mark Gareth Thomas’s 100th game for his country with a victory. The win could have been secured by the time Phillips comes on to throw around his weight in the third quarter.

Fiji will contest the scrums and lineouts as best they can. They have demonstrated during this World Cup that they are much improved in the set-pieces and are more than a team of sevens experts playing 15-aside. But, more significantly, they will want to have enough loose ball to run at Wales.

The one thing that every Wales player knows is that many of the Fijians are big, can run like the wind and like nothing better than to do so. “They want to attack from anywhere and have the players to do it,” Jenkins said. “We need to give Fiji as few opportunities as possible to do so.” Colin Charvis rolled his eyes when asked about the Fiji open-side flanker and No 8. “[Sisa] Koyamaibole has good control of the back of the scrum,” the experienced forward said. “Their No 7 [Akapusi Qera] has good wheels; I hope I’m not chasing him. I’ll leave him to Martyn [Williams, the Wales flanker].”

If Wales impose their will, expect a controlled hour’s play during which they should build a lead, followed by a furious last quarter when all hell could break loose as Fiji throw caution to the wind. If Wales do not quell the Fijian flair early, a defeat is on the cards and Fiji will reach the quarterfinals for the second time, 20 years after the first.

How they line up

Wales: G Thomas (captain); M Jones, T Shanklin, J Hook, S Williams; S Jones, D Peel; G Jenkins, M Rees, C Horsman, A-W Jones, I Evans, C Charvis, M Williams, A Popham. Replacements: T Rhys Thomas, D Jones, I Gough, M Owen, M Phillips, J Robinson, D James.

Fiji: K Ratuvou; V Delasau, S Rabeni, S Bai, I Neivua; N Little, M Rauluni (captain); G Dewes, S Koto, J Railomo, K Leawere, I Rawaqa, S Naevo, A Qera, S Koyamaibole. Replacements: V Sauturaga, H Qiodravu, W Lewaravu, A Ratuva, J Daunivucu, N Ligairi, S Bobo.

Referee: S Dickinson (Australia).

Television: Today: Live on ITV1 from 3.45pm (kick-off 4pm).