Sunday Times sports staff
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Stuart Barnes: Some side is up to the Italian job and it just might be Wales in the next round of the Six Nations championship. In the aftermath of the English go slow in Rome, Jonny Wilkinson described, somewhat deliriously, Italy as a `great side’. They most certainly are not. This is a team that England should have beaten by a 30-point margin, in Rome to boot.
They lack any firepower besides the excellent back row, the scrum-half is not up to test standards and the fly-half is a centre who cannot kick. Only the full-back is a comfortable kicker of the ball which makes him an easy target for opposition bloodhounds.
The real Italy remains closer in terms of scorelines to the one New Zealand hammered in the World Cup and lost to what we now know is a decidedly average Scotland. What more form lines do punters need? Wales are not New Zealand but they are capable of sufficient speed and fluency currently beyond the conservative limitations of England. Italy are probably on a par with Scotland and with substantial improvement far more likely to come from the hosts, there is no reason to think Wales will not relax into this game and play Italy off the park. I expect Wales to win by a 20-25 point margin. Maybe the narrowness of the two Italian defeats will be reflected in odds that fail to reflect Welsh superiority. Whatever the odds, Wales win. It is a matter of buying money.
Lawrence Dallaglio: You know I love to disagree with you but, alas, I am with you on this particular match. I don’t see any way matters are going to be as tight in Cardiff as they were in Rome. After 20 minutes on Sunday afternoon I was rubbing my hands in glee. I thought my bold call of an England bounce-back from week one and a win by 40 points was going to be realised. Twenty points is a great cushion and I expected England to press on. There has to be some credit to Italy but, come on, England should have finished this one off and done patriotic backers a bloody big favour.
It is true that Italy have competed for 80 minutes against Ireland and England but without either a kicking game or wide pace you can only compete so long. Yes, Italy are dogged and certainly doing better than I expected but they lack the skill to unlock the door they batter at, often in vain.
Wales are improving steadily. Scotland’s negativity made it hard for them to get momentum but there are signs they could cut loose. A bit more depth in the back line and they could finish the opposition off as they failed last time out. I can see them winning by 20 points; heck, I wouldn’t be scared to match your call and stick my neck out for a Welsh win by 20-25 points. They have the firepower to expose Italy’s many flaws, which neither Ireland nor England could do.
SB: Ireland are also set for a comfortable win against Scotland. Big and imposing but not too smart thus far, the Scottish strengths can be countered by an Irish eight that was superb in terms of its scrum against France away. The French, one suspects, took their foot off the pedal but the manner of the Irish fightback will have lifted their morale no end after the sloppy effort against Italy.
The lack of spark behind the scrum remains a worry but Brian O’ Driscoll is too good not to click eventually. This might be the time to back him for the first try scorer as he leads Ireland towards a second win which would keep Triple Crown and championship hopes alive. For all the sleepiness of France in the second half, that performance merits some attention.
Against them, Scotland seems to have little to trust other than the metronomic boot of Chris Paterson. His unerring accuracy makes me think that the potential heavy home win is not quite the certainty overall form lines suggest it should be. Ireland should win by a dozen, even with Paterson at his best.
LD: This is getting boring Barnsey. We agree on this one as well. Ireland must click soon and I can see it being against Scotland. They impressed me with the level of improvement shown from Dublin to Paris and they finished very strongly against France. Slowly but surely they are on the way up. With the backs they have, they are going to put a performance together at some stage. The improvement is not rapid but it exists.
I cannot say the same for Scotland. Frank Hadden’s team has to be a lot bolder than it has so far been and take a few risks; be prepared to move the ball around and use the pack’s mobility. It has to be more than just the power game. If they start to get some quick ball Mike Blair, who impresses me, might get more into the game but on the evidence seen they will play too deep, especially if they stick with Dan Parks, so I tip Ireland to cut loose and win by 10 points. That might not sound like anything too loose, a winning margin of 10 points but with Chris Paterson kicking his goals Scotland can be outplayed on the pitch but stay closer than you would imagine possible on the scoreline. So, yes, expect the best yet from Ireland and an easy win – by 10 points.
SB: Which leaves England and France; the French scrum is poor, the French are more nervous in Paris than elsewhere and England beat them as recently as the World Cup semi final...all true and keep telling these facts to the patriotic punters who will lay France.
England are playing the game at such a pedestrian pace that try-scoring against a decent team comes down to opposition errors or minor miracles. Brian Ashton talked post-match of a failure to play territory in Rome when it was a failure to maintain tempo that cost England and allowed Italy to muscle their way back into the game.
Even if the French scrum buckles against an inspired England pack, the prospects of scoring more than 15 points looks remote and that will not be enough. The new French team are far from perfect but they play with a swagger and are giving their backs quick ball and opportunities to attack from anywhere. The preponderance of tries from the back three is testimony to the counter-attacking qualities of this team. Given a lineout that is excellent and in Jean Baptiste Elissalde a man to run the game, France should be capable of overcoming the English juggernaut this time by somewhere around 12-15 points.
If your patriots cannot bear to back France, the answer might be to lay the total points. If you think England are likely to win, the chances are that it will be a low scoring game. England do not play with the tempo to score many tries and France have had major goal-kicking problems thus far.
I wouldn’t back England myself but backing a low points game is effectively doing just that; the more points the more English concern. St. George is not going to prove the patron saint of gamblers next Saturday night.
LD: You old cynic! If England play like they have in the two first halves to date they have a great chance against France.
SB: And if they play as they have in the second?
LD: Play as they have after half time and they will take a hammering. France are going to be favourites and deservedly so. Their selectors have been bold and Jean Baptiste Elissalde has been calmness personified at scrum-half. He is the man who identifies the best turnover ball and when to counter attack.
The way they have counter-attacked has lifted the tournament and taken them away from the Anglo Saxon obsessions and pure pragmatism of Bernard Laporte. Marc Lievremont definitely seems to have liberated them and because of that the back three is so dangerous. Yet there are signs they remain vulnerable. They have a few young players and a young management and when Ireland put the pressure on during the second half they struggled. Ireland had chances and could feasibly have come away with the win.
England will have to attack them at the scrum and lineout and scrap for every bit of possession. I cannot see any way we will play it pretty. We will have to kick accurately and ensure no space for those counter attacks; we will have to kick much better than we have so far and then defend with our lives. If we try to play expansive rugby we are in trouble.
Being underdog will play into our hands. In the past few years we have been at our best when underdogs and if we see the same spirit as we saw at the World Cup, who knows? There are reasons for hope but much as I hate to tip against England the head says France by six to 10 points, especially with home advantage.
Stuart Barnes and Lawrence Dallaglio are Betfair Rugby Ambassadors
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