Stuart Barnes: An Irish win against Wales in the next round of Six
Nations matches and punters who bet that there would be no Six Nations Grand
Slam champions at the generous 8-11 offered before the start of the
tournament can breathe a sigh of relief; and one week before Cheltenham to
boot. From the perspective of a punter seeking early ammunition for the
festival, it is almost too good to be true if the home side overturn Wales,
the only unbeaten team in the tournament, securing the rupees with a round
to go – but will they?
Wales are an improving team whose second-half performance against Italy
impressively revealed the mediocrity of their opponents (and the limitations
of England and Ireland’s narrow wins against the same opposition). The men
in red played with a pace that stretched Italy’s limitations and exposed the
frailties in their defence. Allied with a choice use of the bench, it was a
strong effort and one that gives Wales real hopes in Dublin.
But beneath the stylishness there are flaws not far from the surface. The
Italian pack caused problems and with Ireland’s tight unit as efficient as
it has been at the scrum for years, the hosts could cause problems here.
While Wales have been scoring a stack of tries, they have yet to be
seriously tested by a smart attack.
The most impressive aspect of Ireland’s game was the clinical efficiency of
their attacking game. Eoin Reddan is giving Ronan O’Gara more time because
of the threat he himself poses with his running game and with the fly-half
flourishing again there are clear signs that the fresh faces of Rob Kearney,
Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble are merging into a dangerous offence alongside
a slowly rejuvenating Brian O’Driscoll. If Eddie O’Sullivan sticks with
Georden Murphy, Ireland have an even more formidable attacking look. Then
there is Croke Park. Ireland have lost there so it is not mission impossible
for Wales but still, this is tough.
Wales cannot be dismissed but this could be the game where Ireland really
click. If that happens, Wales are going to be leaving Dublin with the
championship but no Grand Slam to play for. I fancy Ireland by five in what
could be a game that tops 50 points.
Lawrence Dallaglio: Wales could beat Ireland and keep the Grand Slam
alive, but will they? Like you, I doubt it. Wales played some good stuff
against Italy but the scoreline flattered them. I think you might just have
overestimated them, Barnsey. They had it far from their own way until the
Tom Shanklin turning point at the start of the second half.
Ireland, on the other hand, produced a much needed performance against
Scotland. It seemed they rediscovered their missing spark. What with the
likelihood of Paul O’Connell returning in some form or another, Ireland will
pose more problems up front than Wales have endured for a while. Ireland
will have taken plenty of confidence from the manner of the win against
Scotland and with the incentive of the title still live bait, I fancy them.
It could be a reasonably high scoring match with a few tries for each of the
teams, both sides may even make the 20s but this one is Ireland’s by around
to 6-10 points. It will be interesting to see the Welsh line up. I would go
for Dwayne Peel and James Hook at half-back because Hook is the future of
the game in Wales - he is that good - while Peel’s speed of pass and quick
wits are vital. Mike Phillips’ strength suits Wales in the final 20 minutes
but even with the strong Welsh bench, I reckon Croke Park, with O’Connell
back to take some of the pressure off Brian O’Driscoll is a winning
combination for Ireland.
SB: On the face of it, England should have a simpler job in Edinburgh.
Having beaten France away and seen Scotland dispatched in Dublin, it appears
a form book formality but there are reasons for caution. Scotland may not
have scored more than the single try in three games but England have only
just been more creative and have needed a lot of possession to put opponents
away.
Scotland has a decent pack, as they showed last weekend, and have the capacity
to rise to the challenge of their old enemy. If Nathan Hines can create
mayhem at the lineout and Chris Paterson shade the kicking battle with Jonny
Wilkinson this could be much closer than many think. Two years ago Scotland
beat an England team that monopolised possession; in this instance, England
might not win as much ball in all facets of play and with that in mind it
might be judicious to take Scotland with a start. The bookmaker’s powder is
dry right now but it would be no great surprise to see England pushed all
the way. There is the possibility of the World Cup runners-up clicking
behind the scrum but as that has not occurred for over a year, a tempered
bet on Scotland seems the sensible option. For those of more bullish nature,
a home win is not out of the question, despite Scotland’s blunt attacking
problems. If England wins this one by more than single figures I would be
mildly surprised; one to watch, not bet on.
LD: I am not so sure about that. England look well set for a third
championship win. Given the form going into Paris, the result was everything
and this was a fine result indeed, built on those traditional cornerstones
of English rugby, pride, passion, courage and bravery. I saw that French
team sheet and thought England could take them on in the area where we had
the most experience and match them at least, in and around the scrum. The
comprehensive nature of the victory should now be something of a reference
point, especially for a few of the younger members of the team. Let me tell
you, victory in Paris is a significant notch for an Englishman.
It is not all roses, however. There remain major problems with the attacking
game. I am not sure England have moved on an inch in this department but at
least such problems are easier to address from a winning foundation; that is
why Paris was so important. Lesley Vainokolo always drew two or three
players into contact; England must use him more and test Scotland’s defence.
Brian advocates width but he is the sort of wing you want popping up off the
blindside wing and the fly-half’s shoulders. Apart from the attack the
lineout is an area in need of address. England will not always win with
defence.
But they will against Scotland. The home side will be pragmatic and hope to
turn the match into a kicking duel as they are struggling even more than
England to create. Yet raw emotion can and has been known to take Scotland a
long way when they see white shirts in Edinburgh. That is why I do not
expect England to cut loose. They will build a lead and with a similar set
piece and Andrew Sheridan driving off it, well, it is hard to see a team
capable of producing that Paris performance slipping up. Anything other than
a decent win – by 10 points – will be a backwards step.
Stuart Barnes and Lawrence Dallaglio are Betfair Rugby Ambassadors
