Only Ireland stand between Wales and the Grand Slam. An away win in Dublin and Welsh supporters can begin their protracted celebrations because, as sure as wine follows grape, France will fold in Cardiff. It was not so much the naive nature of the loss to England last Saturday as the reaction of the French selectors to that intellectually vacuous performance which makes it a duty to dismiss France.

Inexperience was the overwhelming vice of France against England, and Marc Lièvremont has responded by adding an even more kindergarten-like set of names to his squad. He has made the clearest statement of intent of all coaches: winning in 2008 is nothing, 2011 everything. The balance between the present and France’s international future is way off-kilter. He may well have the last laugh come the next World Cup, but the joke will not be on a winning Welsh team in Cardiff.

So it is “only” Ireland, but as “only” goes it is a formidable ascent for Warren Gatland’s team. From the frozen waste-lands of the awful Ireland team in France has emerged a side with a far fresher edge than many have given credit to. That great survivor, Eddie O’Sullivan, still has aspirations for the Triple Crown. To beat Wales and England in the final rounds of the tournament will be some considerable form of redemption. Ireland loom large for three reasons – luck, judgment and Croke Park, a venue where a fast-flowing Ireland team generates an electric atmosphere. As for the luck of the Irish, that turned out to be the rotten fortunes of Gordon D’Arcy and Girvan Dempsey. But for injuries, both these blunted players would have been automatic selections.

As it is, O’Sullivan’s bête noire, Geordan Murphy, was granted a lifeline at full-back and brilliantly hauled himself from impending international exile with a starring role against Scotland last week, with Rob Kearney and Tommy Bowe adding extra angles off the wing as Murphy’s move from the wider areas opened the way for these gleaming new talents. Andrew Trimble has flourished inside Brian O’Driscoll and, perhaps more pertinently, the captain has rediscovered his sharpness alongside the less familiar Ulster face.

The judgment of O’Sullivan, if not quite as wise as that of Solomon, has been impressive enough. It started during the World Cup with the promotion of Eoin Reddan over Peter Stringer at scrum-half. The Wasps man’s extra pace and threat at the base of the scrum not only adds an element that has been too rare for too long from Stringer, but it enables Ronan O’Gara an extra metre of space in which to operate.

The danger from the scrum-half has played a profound part in the complete recovery of O’Gara’s substantial international reputation. Wales will be tested as they have yet to be tested by this smooth half-back partnership. Multiplying the new-fold Irish threat at the base of the scrum is Jamie Heaslip. He has been forced to battle past the vast commitment of Simon Easterby. The stagnation of the Ireland back row in the sterile performance against Italy was the signal for O’Sullivan belatedly to offer the No 8 berth to the Leinster man. The offer has not been scorned. Impressive in defeat in Paris, his acceleration from the base of the scrum (where Ireland have found a surprising source of strength) ripped Scotland apart on a few occasions, notably for David Wallace’s first try. Where the fly-half has been helped by the extra threat of the scrum-half inside him, Wallace, a consistent performer for years, is more dangerous still with Heaslip alongside him as a carrying colleague. Wales have a gathering storm at half-back and back row to quell if that Grand Slam road is to remain open.

It will be an immense test for the leadership skills of Ryan Jones, touted by Wales’ biggest paper, the Western Mail, to be next year’s Lions captain. If he can dominate proceedings in Dublin, he can make the talk seem a lot less premature. He has to eclipse the most experienced international leader in the Four Unions, O’Driscoll, who should be firm favourite for the role; then there is the small matter of getting the better of the outstanding Heaslip. On form, the Irishman shades the debate.

Most bookmakers will have Ireland, with home advantage, as favourites to pinch the win. That will not faze Wales, who have confounded bookmakers and opponents alike this season. Less afraid of change than England, far more cautious of massed rotation than France, Gatland has so far played a masterly hand, finding the almost perfect blend of short-and-long-term aims.

His experimentation has been most pronounced in a front row where nobody knows what he believes to be the best version. He will have to select wisely as John Hayes has finally translated the best of his Munster form to the green of Ireland and is spearheading a strong scrum.

Threat as the scrum may be, the lineout is an opportunity. Bernard Jackman is expected to pay the price for the problems caused by the Scotland lineout that enabled the Scots to control ball and territory in a way that, if repeated by Wales, will probably result in a “game over” scenario within 20 minutes. Wales have been every bit as cutting as Scotland have been blunt behind the scrum. Ireland must deprive Wales of possession.

Herein lies the potential beauty of this game. Ireland found renaissance behind the scrum against Scotland. Both teams possess a creative spark and finishing power beyond the dreams of Brian Ashton. Both can turn that most tedious of old rugby clichés on its head; that forwards win matches and backs decide by how much.

Against England, Wales’ superior skills denied forward supremacy its rewards, and against Scotland, Ireland’s fabulous finishing gave Scotland a scoreboard pounding that defied the monopoly of the visitors’ possession.

Admittedly it is a rarity when a good little ’un beats a good big ’un in this most demanding of arenas, but Shane Williams has been breaking the mould for Wales all season. In the Ireland camp, Murphy, celebrated in Leicester but his sinuous skills too often mistrusted by O’Sullivan, has it in him to produce another magical display to match that of last weekend.

This is the first match of the Six Nations where both teams are better with than without the ball. The smart money is on Ireland, but Wales have the courage to dream and the technique to win.

- IRELAND coach Eddie O’Sullivan saw his side’s hopes of beating Wales next Saturday take a blow when Geordan Murphy limped off after less than half an hour of Leicester’s Guinness Premiership match against Leeds Carnegie yesterday. The full-back was brought into the Ireland starting lineup for last weekend’s game against Scotland, after injury to Girvan Dempsey, and impressed in the 34-13 home win. With both full-backs now likely to be out of action, O’Sullivan may play Rob Kearney at 15 and bring Shane Horgan back on the wing.