Declan Kidney has compared New Zealand's position as the world's No1 rugby nation to that of Tiger Woods in golf. Point taken. But perhaps he should have taken the analogy farther and included in his musings Padraig Harrington, the Ireland head coach's compatriot, to demonstrate that hope should never be abandoned. Ireland have not beaten New Zealand in 21 meetings over 103 years. Until last year's Open Championship, Harrington had never won a major and been runner-up 30 times in various tournaments. He has since added another Open and a USPGA Championship title. Once the mental block is lifted, anything is possible.

From Ireland's perspective it is time that their record as rugby's nearly men was consigned to history. They should draw inspiration from the achievement of Harrington, who will visit Thomond Park on Tuesday for the first time when Munster face the All Blacks to commemorate their famous victory in 1978. As Girvan Dempsey, the full back, said: “The day that we beat them will come eventually and we want that day to be Saturday.”

And why not? There is little doubt that, deep down, New Zealand appreciate the size of the task at Croke Park this afternoon in front of 82,000 people. It will be daunting, an atmosphere that few of their team will have experienced. It is why Wayne Smith, the New Zealand backs coach, in training this week has been going through “what if” scenarios, trying to replicate and anticipate the quality of Ireland's threat. Smith, who admitted yesterday that he has been approached to coach the Ospreys next season and will determine his future after this tour, said: “This will be a unique occasion.”

Smith spoke of the sophistication of the Ireland backs, “the brute” that is Brian O'Driscoll, in attack and defence. Graham Henry, the New Zealand coach, called Ireland a “very fine side” and for once you sensed that he was not speaking with a forked tongue. It helps to explain why he has selected his strongest team, one of 618 caps.

They have every reason to be wary. Of all the home unions recently, Ireland have come closest to beating New Zealand. In Auckland and Hamilton in 2006 and in Wellington in June this year Ireland lost by ten or 11 points after having been in control. On a bitter night five months ago Ireland had the upper hand for an hour before a moment of genius from Dan Carter and a typical blast from Ma'a Nonu resulted in tries that took the game away from O'Driscoll's men.

How perfect it would be for Kidney - and in particular O'Driscoll, in his 50th match as captain - and the entire nation if Ireland were able to translate a third-quarter lead into something tangible, but the question is, how do you get over the finish line against the All Blacks? Like Scotland, Ireland have yet to find the answer, but they have a chance today.

The lineout is an area Ireland should look to exploit because a patched-up Ali Williams is playing his third tough international in a row at lock for New Zealand. And Ireland's threequarter line is probably the most potent in the British Isles.

Kidney has wiped the slate clean and has given everyone a chance, such as Alan Quinlan, the Munster blind-side flanker, recalled at the age of 34. “There was the disappointment of the World Cup last year and there wasn't the best feeling within the group afterwards, so we didn't have a good Six Nations. It's different now,” Quinlan said.

Then there is the clutch of young thoroughbreds waiting in the starting stalls, backs of youth and class such as Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe and Luke Fitzgerald. Throw in O'Driscoll, whose only missing scalp is that of the All Blacks, Ronan O'Gara and the take-no-prisoners Munster forwards and you can understand why Ireland believe that the drought could be about to end.

“O'Driscoll and O'Gara are smart players,” Richie McCaw, the New Zealand captain, said. “If you give them good ball to operate with, they have the ability to use it. Paul

O'Connell [the lock] is another of those characters. With guys like that scattered throughout the team they lift the players around them.”

McCaw has the same galvanising effect on his team. It promises to be a wonderful encounter, but will Ireland be able to hole that winning putt on the 18th?

Ireland: G Dempsey (Leinster); T Bowe (Ospreys), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, captain), L Fitzgerald (Leinster), R Kearney (Leinster); R O'Gara (Munster), T O'Leary (Munster); M Horan (Munster), R Best (Ulster), J Hayes (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster), A Quinlan (Munster), D Wallace (Munster), J Heaslip (Leinster). Replacements: J Flannery (Munster), A Buckley (Munster), S Ferris (Ulster), S Jennings (Ulster), E Reddan (London Wasps), P Wallace (Ulster), K Earls (Munster).

New Zealand: M Muliaina; J Rokocoko, C Smith, M Nonu, S Sivivatu; D Carter, J Cowan; A Woodcock, K Mealamu, N Tialata, B Thorn, A Williams, J Kaino, R McCaw (captain), R So'oialo. Replacements: C Flynn, J Afoa, A Boric, K Read, P Weepu, S Donald, I Toeava.

Referee: M Lawrence (South Africa).

Television: Live on BBC Two from 4.55pm (kick-off 5.15pm).