Graphic: Wales v New Zealand key clashes

The plotline in the latest chapter of the Wales-New Zealand potboiler revolves around each side’s ability to cope mentally. In Wales’s case, with a possible inferiority complex that could mean they are beaten before they start, while the All Blacks are returning to the scene of one of the most hideous moments in their illustrious history.

Warren Gatland, the Wales head coach who is the third New Zealander to coach the Principality’s rugby union team, did not hesitate trying to reopen old wounds yesterday. “The last time they were here they lost,” he said. “They are in the same changing-room. The two coaches have not had a great time here. There may be a few demons coming back to haunt them.”

A year ago at the Millennium Stadium, Gatland said that he felt a sense of déjà vu as New Zealand again failed in a World Cup by losing in the quarter-finals to France. He was surprised the team had frozen again and said he could not fathom the game plan.

Graham Henry, his counterpart and a predecessor with Wales, did not try to hide that there was still a degree of hurt from the World Cup quarter-final defeat 13 months ago. “Of course we have a few demons,” Henry said. “This is probably the greatest venue in the world. We have been second on this ground a few times. It is not a great memory, but it is reality.” The key for Gatland is whether Wales will be in the right frame of mind after a less than convincing win against Canada, one that followed the near-miss against South Africa, after which the players felt the rough edge of their coach’s tongue. He has no concerns about their ability to cope physically with New Zealand, because they did so against the equally robust Springboks. Gatland cited a thumping training session on Tuesday and a gym session two days later at which several players achieved personal bests.

Where he does have worries is the feeling that his players might not believe in themselves. “It is the top two inches which are crucial for us,” Gatland said, as if people needed reminding. A good reference point for him and Wales will be 2004, when they lost 26-25, rather than the most recent meetings, in which New Zealand have run up more than 40 points on the past two occasions. Four years ago, Father Time counted against them with the fiasco of the stadium clock. Having kicked a penalty, Wales thought there was another three minutes remaining, not realising it was showing match time rather than lapsed time, as it had in previous matches. Had Wales known they were close to full time, they might have kicked for position and tried to fashion the winning try rather than go for goal.

“Self-belief is the big challenge for the boys,” Gatland said. “We asked on Day 1, ‘Do you really believe you can win this match because we only want people who say, yes.’ ” He felt that Ireland collapsed last week after the concession of the penalty try just before half-time. “If you let the All Blacks get in front they are very dangerous,” Gatland said. “You have to get them in an arm-wrestle and if you are still with them with ten minutes to go, anything can happen.”

The trouble is, arm-wrestles are really not Wales’s forte. They look more comfortable and indeed threatening when playing off the cuff, when the game is looser. However, that would suit the All Blacks, who appear to have been in cruise control on this tour and are anxious to demonstrate that there is style as well as substance to this latest New Zealand vintage. They have shown glimpses of what might be, not least against Ireland last week, when they eased to a 22-3 victory. They will have the edge at the breakdown, where their back row is superior to that of Wales, whose captain, Ryan Jones, looks out of sorts.

New Zealand should banish those demons and head to Twickenham next Saturday in search of a grand slam, while Wales will again be left scratching their heads.