Graphic: let battle commence - how they line up in Durban

Slowly but surely, the Lions have chipped away at South Africa’s veneer. How often have they arrived on tour when the Springboks have been either official or unofficial world champions — go back to 1938, 1955, 1962, 1997 and now this year — and left a mark. Not always a winning mark, maybe, but this is the country where they have had most success.

But if ever they needed to win the first international of a series, as they did in 1955 and 1997, it is at the old King’s Park, the ABSA Stadium, this afternoon. There is a vulnerability about the home side, who have not been together since November and have players short of game time.

If South Africa can put the pieces back together successfully at sea level, the next two internationals will be played at altitude in Pretoria and Johannesburg and the momentum will be with them. Though the Lions have emphasised time and again that this is the first match of a series, they are kidding nobody: lose and the road is long and steep.

Ian McGeechan, the head coach, has pointed out that in 1989, the Lions lost the first game against Australia yet went on to clinch the series. That, though, with respect to Bob Dwyer’s Wallabies, was against lesser opponents than these Springboks. Eight years ago, again in Australia, the Lions famously won the opening game in Brisbane but lost the series — the last time they won an international.

Only a fool would not make South Africa favourites today, but there is a back door for the Lions and whether it opens or shuts depends on the pack. The Springboks have the best lineout in the world, so the touring side have chosen their most athletic jumpers — Alun Jones, Tom Croft and Paul O’Connell. In each of the first six matches, the Lions have made their scrum a platform and must do so against the Springboks.

If they can win the set-piece battle, all sorts of possibilities open up: the fast runners in the home back row have fewer opportunities, Fourie du Preez has his space reduced and the Lions half backs can direct play. They can see how match-fit Ruan Pienaar is at fly half, discover the quality of Frans Steyn’s positional play at full back and could have the upper hand at the breakdown.

“If we get involved in a set-piece battle, a really physical one-on-one confrontation, South Africa will enjoy it,” Warren Gatland, the forwards coach, said. “We have gone for mobility. Hopefully we can ask questions of their tight five, that’s the plan.”

Gatland, though, knows as well as anyone that the ability to challenge South Africa’s set-piece is fundamental. He is also aware that the breakdown could be a lottery, depending on the interpretation of the referee. The Lions have been more comfortable on this tour with local officials than with the northern hemisphere’s Wayne Barnes and Nigel Owens and whatever conversations have been had by the respective coaching staffs with Bryce Lawrence, players must adapt to the New Zealander’s perception of laws he has not had to rule by much.

Thirteen of the Lions XV have played together on tour before, against the Golden Lions — not the most meaningful opposition as it turned out but better than nothing. Ten of the same players turned out against the Sharks and that includes the scrum half and his back row, both centres and two thirds of the front row. Lee Mears and Gethin Jenkins have roomed together on tour and the Bath hooker is referring to the Wales prop as a “grumpy old man”, which suggests they are getting on well.

The Springboks have had nothing in comparison and need time. Peter de Villiers, the coach, might have based his side around the Bulls, winners of the Super 14 in the most emphatic style, but he has chosen seven Sharks and expects the mixture to gel.

He may be right, but many critics in the southern hemisphere do not believe that Super rugby is good preparation for internationals. While South Africa have been working out in camp against the Emerging Springboks, the Lions have been ekeing out wins, not always playing impressively well but finding different ways to overcome their mixed bag of opponents.

They have become a bloody-minded lot, not afraid to give the ball air, and their wings, Tommy Bowe and Ugo Monye, have developed into a potent strike force. Moreover, they have deliberately held back the tactical plays that they believe could work, while building a rush defence that still needs greater accuracy but could threaten a Springbok back line whose timing has not settled into a groove.

There are too many ifs and buts about this Lions squad to be confident, but they have done better than expected so far. This afternoon, we will see for the first time the true character of the class of 2009.