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Big Game? Maybe not. The Springboks have made ten changes to their starting line-up while the Lions have opted for eight. On the face of it the third and final Test has the look of a damp squib. Imagine a five-set match that continued after a player had won the first three sets. That should give some idea of the drop in intensity that many expect in Ellis Park for Saturday’s final act of the 2009 Lions tour.
There is no point pretending we have a third instalment to match the drama of the two preceding weeks but as a one-off game this match retains plenty of appeal.
The South Africans have finally arrived at their form midfield. Morne Steyn’s presence from the start could send cold shivers through the Lions fans. Not only due to the icy steel and expertise of the great final kick of the second Test but the composure he showed coming off the bench into the cauldron that was Pretoria last Saturday.
Inside the fly half remains the world’s best scrum half, Fourie du Preez, and outside him Wynand Olivier has earned a chance to show Peter de Villiers that he deserves to be considered the leading Springbok inside centre. He was the most improved performer in this season’s Super 14 series, adding attacking edge to his fine defensive game. All three play for the mighty Blue Bulls so understanding is no problem.
Jaque Fourie starts at outside centre and he, too, is a player whose form merited his inclusion in the first Test but the coach’s support for the lesser Adi Jacobs deprived him of the Test match adrenaline for most of the past fortnight. When he did come on last weekend, it was to devastating effect, with a magnificently finished try. The inside shoulder dipped into the tacklers, the ball tucked beneath the hard-to-dislodge right arm, it was the perfect finish Ugo Monye could not manage in Durban.
The Harlequins winger returns to the team and has a chance to prove what he has shown most of his career, that he is a quick learner. The decision to drop Luke Fitzgerald for his defensive and chasing deficiencies is a little peculiar, as if the Lions cannot decide whether their wings' priority is to finish or to defend.
Monye and Shane Williams face the Springboks reserve wings. Watch out for Jongi Nokwe. He is one of the most exciting players in South Africa and can make Habana look a little tardy. Up front there are forced and unforced changes that weaken the home side in the front five, though the back row looks a tough area for the Lions again with Heinrich Brussow, the outstanding open-side of the Super 14 tournament and bane of the Lions throughout this tour likely to be snuffling the ball on the ground from the first minute. Like Fourie, his presence off the bench was decisive last week. This is not full-strength South Africa but it is strong and it makes sense to rest a few players before the Tri Nations. The series is won and the coach has an opportunity to see second-string players prove their worth or otherwise. It is the sort of progressive thinking with which England have struggled for a long time.
In contrast, the Lions look considerably weaker. The loss of both props is great, the loss of the side’s warrior leader, Brian O’Driscoll, is catastrophic. With Jamie Roberts also unfit, the Lions cutting edge in midfield is badly blunted. It will place extra pressure on the understated Stephen Jones to pull the strings if the Lions are to win against the odds.
Up front Phil Vickery’s shot at redemption against the Beast is fascinating – whatever the state of the series. The Cornishman took a hammering for what happened in the first Test. With Simon Shaw adding extra scrum weight, Vickery has a chance to prove that some of the criticism was simplistic and the Lions selection elsewhere was as faulty as his long-backed technique.
The wonderful Martyn Williams has earned his place and his competition with Brussow is an exciting prospect. Whether Joe Worsley deserves to start in front of Tom Croft is debatable but given Williams’s lesser bulk compared to David Wallace, perhaps the extra ballast of the Wasp was the defining factor in the selection. It was definitely not a form selection.
His inclusion brings the number of starting Wasps to four. Considering they failed to make the top half of the Premiership, there will be eyebrows raised in Ian McGeechan’s direction if the team fail to at least compete with the same zest and imagination as they have so far.
The pressure of the series is off but the need for a strong performance from the Lions is great. A battering will lessen the gleam of what has been a superb series to date. South Africa have never before whitewashed the Lions; ten changes or not, it will be a seismic shock if they don’t achieve the 3-0 score line this time around. The gulf in strength in depth between these sides proved fatal to the Lions in last week’s second half. It could be painfully emphasised once again on Saturday.
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