In a week’s time, if the sponsors, tournament marketing chiefs and photographers get their way, the Florida sun will shine on a picturesque Miami Sunday morning and Maria Sharapova will pose demurely cradling the Sony Ericsson Open trophy.

If not Sharapova, then Nicole Vaidisova, Ana Ivanovic or Daniela Hantuchova will do. Serena Williams, of course, cannot be discounted from being the focus of the celebratory cameras after her stunning Australian Open victory, but her chances cannot be helped by the fact that prior to motoring down Interstate 95 from her family’s Palm Beach Gardens compound, she had not hit a ball in anger since her Melbourne victory eight weeks previously.

The world No 1 Justine Henin should also not be discounted but her basic dislike of the United States is well documented and her discomfort with the gusts of wind that blow up off Biscayne Bay mean she has never progressed further than the quarter-finals.

However, if the law of averages are a guide then the winner of the title will have been born, if not raised, behind that fearsome barricade that until 16 years ago was the Iron Curtain. And should the current trend continue, the majority of female champions for years to come will have had similar beginnings.

When Alan Mills, formerly Wimbledon referee and still the overseer of fair play at this the world’s most prestigious and dollar-laden tournament outside the world’s four Grand Slam events, put the 96 names into the hat to make the ladies’ singles draw, 43 of them were listed as playing for eastern European nations. Add into the equation that although Martina Hingis might be portrayed as the “Swiss Miss”, the winner of five major titles was born in Slovakia, and France’s Tatiana Golovin hails from Moscow, her family moving to Lyon when she was an infant.

Certainly the mood on the women’s tour remains very much a case of us and them. Henin has never been a person to look down and make judgments from her lofty position on top of the women’s game but viewing the Russians, she said: “They’re young, audacious and they never relinquish anything, even if they are losing.”

Women’s tennis is facing a transitional phase; the former world No 1 Lindsay Davenport is expecting her first child and has no intention of compromising motherhood by returning to the tour, and Kim Clijsters will follow her into retirement later this year at the age of 24. There is a school of belief that insists Amelie Mauresmo, absent from Miami after suffering appendicitis, is so satisfied with collecting the Australian Open and Wimbledon titles last year that her competitive instincts will never again be sufficiently sharp to contend for the big prizes, and of course the commitment of Serena and Venus Williams to full-time competition is forever dubious.

Although Na Li is now ranked 17th in the world after reaching the semi-finals in Indian Wells eight days ago, the Chinese surge that was predicted several years ago has been slow in gaining momentum and she is 25, which in female tennis terms is bordering on veteran status. So it is true to say that the emerging young players on the WTA Tour, with the exception of Israel’s Shahar Peer and India’s Sania Mirza, are eastern European.

“It should not come as any real surprise,” says Carl Maes, the Lawn Tennis Association’s recently appointed head of women’s tennis. “We’ve known the reasons for some time. Regardless of the political change that took place, social life is still very different in the old eastern bloc countries to what we know in the West.

“The motivation to succeed cannot be compared. In Russia, the Czech Republic or all the other [eastern European] countries parents see tennis as a way out of the lifestyle they still find themselves in. It is an opportunity to find great wealth, and many of these players have strong parents who are intent on success. Anna Kournikova was the role model. We might think she did not achieve too much from her tennis career as she never won a singles title, but look at the riches she found. Now Sharapova has taken it on to another level. We in the West cannot ever really think of competing on that level, and frankly we would not want to do so. Very few people would make comparable sacrifices.”

In addition, weight of numbers dictate that Russia has 16 players in the world’s top 100. “Remember that for every one of those that succeeds, there are thousands and thousands who fail,” adds Maes, whose own country, Belgium, has long punched above its weight per capita with two Grand Slam title-winning players inside the top five.

The still-debated addition of tennis to the Olympics in 1988 was also crucial, as the then Soviet Union began to channel funding into coaching and development. Britain aims to emulate eastern Europe by identifying talent at an early stage. Tennis clubs in Moscow have long run selection camps for children as young as four, finding out whether they possess the necessary attributes, such as good hand-to-eye coordination, athleticism and the ability to tolerate discipline. Genetics are also examined, and players with parents of impressive and resilient stature are encouraged. It is no coincidence that many of the top players now are such perfect physical specimens that they could earn a living on the fashion catwalks.

Certainly in female tennis the East’s domination will become even more prevalent. Two months ago Anastasia Pavly-uchenkova, a 15-year-old who lives in Moscow’s suburbs, underlined her position as the world’s top junior by retaining the Australian Open title despite being two years younger than some of her opponents. Last September she also won the US Open junior title, while the 2006 French Open girls’ title went to Agnieszka Radwanska of Poland. Since the turn of the century, 17 of the 29 girls’ singles titles at the four Grand Slam events have been won by eastern Europeans. Going down an age group, only the Netherlands in 2002 can break the eastern European monopoly of the ITF’s World Team Cup for under14s that stretches back to 1995, with Russia winning four times and the Czechs three. It is best left to Shamil Tarpishchev, the long-time figurehead of Russian tennis, to have the last word: “Today we are considered the world’s strongest tennis power,” he says. “We are killing tennis in America.” Will next week’s winner share that point of view as she smiles into the camera?

World top 15

1 Justine Henin (Bel)

2 Maria Sharapova (Rus)

3 Svetlana Kuznetsova (Rus)

4 Amelie Mauresmo (Fra)

5 Kim Clijsters (Bel)

6 Martina Hingis (Swi)

7 Nadia Petrova (Rus)

8 Nicole Vaidisova (Cze Rep)

9 Jelena Jankovic (Ser)

10 Elena Dementieva (Rus)

11 Anna Chakvetadze (Rus)

12 Daniela Hantuchova (Svk)

13 Patty Schnyder (Swi)

14 Dinara Safi na (Rus)

15 Ana Ivanovic (Ser)