The leaders of Africa's 50 million Anglicans have today rejected the consecration of Gene Robinson, the world's first openly gay Anglican bishop. Ruth Gledhill, Religion Correspondent, left, reports.

How predictable was the response of the African bishops?

It was predictable in that they went as far as they could. Legally they cannot demand that America is expelled or disciplined in any way because the authority to do that does not exist in the Anglican Communion. The Archbishop of Canterbury and the Primates at their recent meeting went as far as they could in endorsing a system of alternative episcopal oversight for parishes that cannot accept the ministry of Gene Robinson or the Bishops who ordained him, and that is what the Global South primates now want set up. They are in "impaired communion" but it is difficult to see what this means in practice. They will not recognise Mr Robinson as a bishop but already they do not recognise the ministry of the many women bishops in Canada, New Zealand and America, so really they are in impaired communion already.

Is schism more or less likely now?

Schism cannot be ruled out. Whether it happens or not will depend on the findings of the commission set up by the Primates under the chairmanship of Dr Robyn Eames, Archbishop of Armagh. If the objectors leave, huge issues of property and money arise. What they really want is for America to leave, but that is just not going happen. Issues such as these often do come down to money in the end and it is difficult to see how a true schism could be financed, particularly in the Global South, where the churches are poor and some are dependent, particularly for their communications systems, on funding from America.

Will other countries follow suit?

Nigeria and Uganda are likely to follow suit, and possibly the West Indies and the province of the Southern Cone. But it is unlikely to be immediate because normally, general synods and councils have to meet to make such decisions. In England, for example, it could take 18 months or more to get a statement of impaired communion agreed by the country's parochial church councils, deanery and diocesan synods and finally the General Synod.

What is the likely result of the commission?

It is very likely to come up with a workable solution and, because no-one really wants to leave the Church, both sides will probably make every effort to see that it works. But as Dr Rowan Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury, has said all along, some kind of "realignment" is likely in the end, operating through the system of alternative oversight. No-one really wants parallel jurisdictions, with orthodox and liberal provinces running side-by-side, both in communion with Canterbury but not with each other, but it could come to that in the end.

What next?

There will be more statements of anger and regret, synod meetings and decisions around the world, more statements of impaired communion from those synods. There will be the commission's report next October. And there could be more same-sex blessing rites authorised in Canada and America. There could even be another gay bishop appointed in America or another liberal province, though probably not in England.

America does not tend to give in when under attack. It continues defiantly on its chosen course of action. So we can expect more of the same, I think.

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