Patrick Foster, Patrick Hosking and Gabriel Rozenberg
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Holidaymakers will be heading west in record numbers this summer after the pound passed the two-dollar mark for the first time in nearly 15 years yesterday.
Not since September 1992 has sterling been so strong against the dollar. Travel agents have reported a 30 per cent rise in bookings for American holidays in past weeks, as the pound has edged towards the magical figure.
But it was not all good news. The pound’s increase against the dollar came as the consumer price index, the official method of measuring inflation, reached 3.1 per cent, its highest in more than 14 years.
It is now a near-certainty that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 5.5 per cent next month, adding another £30 per month to a £200,000 mortgage. Experts said that rates were likely to be increased at least once more this year.
Industry analysts said yesterday that the pound was likely to rise even farther against the dollar. “I’m only surprised it’s taken so long. In a year’s time we think it will be around $2.10,” said Steve Barrow, a currency strategist at Bear Stearns.
The Association of British Travel Agents said that it was expecting a further surge in demand for trips to the US. A spokesman said: “Last time the pound was particularly strong we saw a massive increase in visitors even though we never got near to $2.
“It’s never been cheaper to get to America in the first place. Now with the weakness of the dollar the flights for US travellers become less attractive. The airlines need to fill those seats, so they will have to drop their prices even more.”
Shoppers flying to New York can take advantage of the $2 rate to snap up bargains unheard of in the British high street. An 80GB iPod in New York can be bought for $379 including tax, roughly £190, compared with £239 in Britain.
It is not just visitors to the US who will benefit. Many countries, including Hong Kong and Cuba, peg their currencies to the dollar, and will be similarly affected.
Customs officials warned Britons thinking of making the trip to America that they should declare any goods bought above £145. A spokesman for Revenue and Customs said: “We know when flights from the US land. We hope that most people are honest.”
The $2 pound does have a downside for Britain. A strong sterling rate increases the price of British-made goods in the US, our biggest export market. British companies with large operations in the US and other dollar-linked territories also suffer when they convert profits back to sterling.
Many large British companies, including HSBC, BP and Shell, set their share dividends in dollars. An attractive dividend increase in dollar terms can shrink or disappear entirely after translation.
Any further rise in the base rate of interest will hurt those with big mortgages. Were the base rate to rise half a point to 5.75 per cent, a family with a repayment mortage of £200,000 would pay £60.62 more per month. Anyone with an interest-only mortgage of £200,000 would pay £83.33 more.
American estate agents said that there was huge interest from Britons looking for property in the US. In Florida, a five-bedroom detached house can be bought for as little as $400,000, or £200,000.
John Mike, the UK representative of the National Association of Realtors, said: “The property prices here are so low. If you walk around some parts of Orlando you’d think you were in London, there are so many Brit accents.”
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