As Kenya emerges from the mayhem of the past fortnight, The Sunday Times has learnt that the Foreign Office (www.fco.gov.uk) is preparing to lift its advice against all but essential travel as early as Tuesday – if the current state of calm continues.

Travel experts, however, fear the nation’s tourist industry may take a long time to recover from the effects of the violence. Tour operators have cancelled all departures to Kenya, despite the fact that no tourists have been affected by political violence in the country.

The loss of as many as 8,000 arrivals from the UK since the troubles began has had a devastating effect on an industry that had enjoyed steady growth since the last ban, in 2003.

And, with little spare capacity in the winter-sun market, those who had booked exotic Kenyan breaks are being offered few alternatives.

“Frankly, most people are taking the refunds,” confirmed an industry source, “because, at such short notice, we’ve got nowhere else to offer them. It’s not as though we can take 500 people who were booked to go to Mombasa and suddenly find beds for them in the Maldives.”

Chris McIntyre, of the tour operator Expert Africa, says the next few days are crucial. “More violence could have a knock-on effect on tourism across the whole of East Africa. While alternative safari destinations such as Tanzania might benefit from a short-term increase, the overall effect will be detrimental.”

Operators are expected to pile on incentives to get tourists back. “In the short term, the market should definitely be offering discounts,” said the Kenyan tourist board, “but we’re confident it won’t be like 2003, when there was serious discounting for several months.”