THE train journey time between London and Cologne is five hours. There are few British takers for this trip, although a small but growing number from Germany.

Even with improved links, faster times and increased frequency, this journey is still likely to be seen in five years as a plane, rather than a train, trip. But on how many relatively short journeys in the small box of northwestern Europe, roughly bounded by London, Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt, can airlines feel entirely safe from the challenge of rail? As the high-speed train network expands and trains get faster and more frequent, how many routes will become, if not train-only, at least train-dominated? The process has already started and is likely to accelerate. The short-haul map of Europe is likely to look very different in 2010.

High-speed trains have been operating in Europe for more than a generation, and France is the nation where they have had the biggest impact on air services.

The first air service to suffer from the arrival of the TGV was Paris-Lyons. Ignacio Barrón de Angoiti, the high- speed train expert for the International Union of Railways (UIC), says the reduction to five or six services to Lyons was “the most sensational and most symbolic sign” of the train’s impact. “Before, there was a flight every hour.”

But if Paris-Lyons was sharply reduced, the arrival of the high-speed Thalys train between Paris and Brussels ended the air route between the two capitals.

The plane could not compete with the 90-minute train service and Air France now books a large number of seats on the train for its travellers using Charles de Gaulle (CDG) Airport, where the train calls.

Also gone are flights between Frankfurt and Cologne and direct flights between Frankfurt and Stuttgart, routes where, like Air France, Lufthansa uses the German high-speed train service, ICE, to carry its passengers. The Paris-Cologne service also goes via Amsterdam Schiphol.

There are several high-speed services due that could have a similar impact. “The service most likely to have an important impact is Madrid-Barcelona in 2007. This will be two and a half hours,” Barrón de Angoiti says. “When the Madrid-Seville train service opened, the air service was damaged but did not disappear. About 85 per cent of travellers go by train. I think something similar will happen on Madrid-Barcelona. The air service will not disappear but will be modified. All three airlines that run flights on this route — Iberia, Spanair and Air Europa — are expecting a drop in services.”

Barrón de Angoiti highlights Milan-Rome as another route where the train will take the lion’s share when journey times are cut from the current four and a half to two and a half hours.

Next year the Brussels-Amsterdam leg of the Thalys service is due to become high-speed. The full route from Paris to Amsterdam via Brussels will then take two hours. This is regarded as the classic time when train becomes more viable than plane. The plane takes 1hr 15min. But, as the train will call at CDG and Schiphol, it is likely to be more attractive both in terms of convenience and time spent getting to and from the airport.

The 55-minute flights from Amsterdam to Brussels and Cologne to Brussels are also set to be a casualty of this improved rail service.

The French and German rail authorities are engaged in improving tracks to create a high-speed service between Paris and Frankfurt. If the resulting journey time dips under three hours, Barrón de Angoiti believes that the train could start taking a bigger share of the market (the journey takes 1hr 25min by plane). There is also likely to be a move away from the plane on the Paris-Strasbourg route, which takes 2hr 20min by train.

But the biggest prize of all for the train may soon be up for grabs. In 2007, when the last leg of the UK sector is upgraded to high-speed, train trips from London to Paris and Brussels will, respectively, take 2hr 10min and 1hr 55min.

Eurostar, which operates trains on this Channel Tunnel link, already claims 70 per cent of the London-Paris market and 62 per cent of the London-Brussels market.

While the idea that there may not be any more flights from London to Paris or Brussels is fanciful, the idea that there could be a lot fewer seems much more realistic.

Stanley Slaughter edits the Business Travel Europe website.

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