AIRLINES will offer nearly 60 million fewer seats in the last three months of the year compared to the same period in 2007, new figures reveal.

The spiralling cost of oil and the credit crunch equates to a seven per cent drop in the number of flights and seat capacity for the quarter, says OAG (Official Airline Guide).

The "unprecedented" severity of the downturn in aviation follows announcements from airlines including Ryanair and British Airways that they will sharply cut the number of flights this winter.

But the biggest downturn is in North America, where airlines will cut 20 million seats, the equivalent of one-third of the global decline in capacity.

The downturn is also having a marked effect in Asia, where carriers plan a 13 per cent decrease in capacity, equivalent to a three-year setback in growth, says OAG.

It is not only passengers who are facing reduced service and choice - many airports will be severely affected by the announced cuts by airline operations, with 275 airports around the world losing scheduled air service altogether based on current filed schedules, adds OAG. Of these, 32 are in the U.S. while 116 are in the Asia Pacific region.

Steve Casley, chief operating officer of OAG, said: “The data speaks for itself. It took a good three years for the industry to recover from the downturn in 2001 when it had a five per cent drop in capacity and a sevenper cent drop in flights.

"Steady annual growth since 2002 looks set to plummet in the fourth quarter this year with an unprecedented global decline of seven per cent.”

“Commercial aviation marches in lock-step with the global economy, closely reflecting growth and declines in GDP, with on average a steady 3-4% growth year over year,” continued Casley.

“In the last 10 years this steady growth has been interrupted twice: first, by the meltdown of the global economy in 2001 following the burst of the Internet bubble, which was compounded by a year of crises with the traumatic events of 9/11, the Gulf War and the SARS epidemic within Asia; and second – on the immediate horizon – by the extraordinary impact that the rising cost of oil is having on the global economy.

!We tend to focus so much attention on the growth of Asian markets, but the projected 13 per cent drop in Asian seat capacity is a significant metric that may have wider impact.

“From OAG’s statistics, it looks quite possible that we may be facing a far more severe global downturn than we have experienced before. The industry’s resilience will be pushed to its limits in the coming months, with carriers, airports and passengers alike all waiting and watching for a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.”

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